Empirical Study Of Financial Early Warning Of Listed Company In Jilin Province

In 2008, a financial storm, which originated in the US "subprime mortgage crisis",swept over the globe, for a short time, some of the five famous investment banks in Wall Street went Bankrupt, some were taken over or were converted to commercial banks.In the worldwide,hundreds of commercial banks went bankrupt or were taken over.This serious reality warns us that financial risk is everywhere , if we neglect the financial risk all the time until it turns into financial crisis which is beyond our company's ability to control,then it is too late to take measures; however ,financial risk will turn into financial crisis silently in the company without risk early warning systems.Therefore,the best way to save the company from financial risk is to understand the risk,to forecast the risk and then to control the risk.In fact ,it is a realistic and urgent task to establish risk early warning systems, learn the features of risk sources, and then, predict and measure the financial risk correctly,because this allows operators take effective measures to improve the administration of the company at the very beginning of the financial crisis.This thesis firstly explains domestic and foreign related theories about financial analysis and early warning systems, and then introduces the current domestic and international major research results on financial warning systems, technical methods and the general situation of listed companies in Jilin province; Secondly, based on the public financial data of listed companies in Jilin Province in 2008 and 2009,this thesis sets up the financial warning model of listed companies in Jilin Province and make warning analysis on the financial situation of listed companies in Jilin Province in 2010.Finally, this thesis makes the conclusion and gives some suggestions on listed companies' financial warning systems construction in Jilin Province.In order to help the companies discover and prevent the financial crisis in early time, this thesis makes a comprehensive analysis on the financial situation of listed companies in Jilin province using domestic and foreign advanced financial warning model, which has a significant influence not only to the enterprises responding to financial risk ,but also to the economic development of Jilin province and even the whole country.The innovation of this thesis is to integrate the factor analysis, cluster analysis,logic analysis and some other empirical method together,which could on one hand make this thesis more scientific and accurate, on the other hand avoid the situation in previous studies that research people select the financial indicators themselves.This article uses factor analysis method effectively to select the main key indicators that influence corporate financial situation, which avoids to select the indicators blindly; at the some time, this thesis uses cluster analysis methods to combine species of the listed companies of Jilin province,and then finds out companies that have similar financial characteristics, so it will not affect the accuracy of prediction model and also solve the problem of insufficient sample size; In the end,a prediction model is established using factor analysis based on data samples with factor scores ,with which multicollinearity between variables are overcome and the norms and the strictness of Logistic regression method are obviously improved. Finally, a more accurate warning models of financial crises for listed companies in Jilin Province is set up and the research methods of tdomestic financial crisis prediction has been improved.The combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis is also a major feature of this study. This thesis selects some financial indicators,and than based on these selected financial indicators, this thesis conducts a series of quantitative analysis and sets up the financial crisis warning models; at the same time, this thesis re-defines the financial crisis based on qualitative analysis and finds out the internal and external reason for financial crisis, effectively avoiding to select financial indicators subjectivity and randomly, thus enhancing the reliability of conclusions.This thesis is designed to help companies identify and predict the existing risk of the enterprise and take effective preventive measures in advance to respond to financial risks, so that enterprises could develop.