Financial Forewarning Analysis Of Listed Companies

Since the founding of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December19.1990, the capital marketof our country has gone through the course of nearly twenty-two years, the fierce competition in themarket economy while providing opportunities for development, but also hiding numerous risks andchallenges, With the development of securities markets, listed companies in China's marketeconomy has injected strong vitality and vigor, while the distressed financial condition of abnormal,Especially after the2008financial crisis, the Chinese stock market suddenly "bull" turn "Bear", thenumber of declared bankrupt,"ST" companies increased year by year. The listed company'sfinancial crisis have become increasingly prominent, in the background of financial crisistriggered a thought, our country start research on the listed company's financial crisis early warningmodel have important practical and long-term significance for the development of China's capitalmarket.In this paper, by using the Factor component analysis and discriminate analysis of theShanghai and Shenzhen listed62companies (31ST companies and31ST companies) conducted anempirical study. We used the feature value is greater than1and the cumulative contribution rate inabout70%the both two methods to select principal components and make a factor rotation in orderto better explain the economic significance of factors. The test results show that the factor analysisin the prediction analysis of the financial crisis has better prediction. The application of thediscriminate analysis to the financial crisis warning analysis, use the Fisher discriminant and Bayesdiscriminate method, the test results of the tested samples show that these two methods in theprediction analysis on the financial crisis has a better prediction results.