Research On Financial Early Warning Of Listed Manufacturing Companies

Manufacturing is the leading industry of our national economy, under the impact of the global financial crisis, the possibility of Chinese listed manufacturing companies falling into financial and bankrupt risks will have a sharp rise, its effective financial early warning seems urgently important. The paper has used the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share 61 ST and 61 non-ST listed manufacturing companies of 2014 as the study sample, on the basis of literature research, selected the appropriate 15 financial indicators and 11 non-financial indicators of these listed companies by the Chinese finance website Hexun, through independent T-test of sample, used the "entropy method", factor analysis, discriminant analysis and SPSS statistical analysis software to build financial early warning indicator system, established financial early warning model of manufacturing and empirical research on financial early warning. The specific results of the research are as follows:Firstly, this paper has been based on 15 financial ratios indicators and 11 non-financial indicators of 31 ST and 31 non-ST companies in our manufacturing industry to construct financial early warning indicator system; Secondly, the paper has screened out of 13 financial indicators and 3 non-financial indicators, then got 7 common factors, determined the financial early warning discriminant function and has established financial early warning model which is used for discriminating ST and non-ST companies; Thirdly, the paper has taken test group’s data into the financial early warning model, the result shows that the discriminant accuracy of financial early warning function is 66.67%, indicating the model can better reflect the financial condition of the company; Fourthly, each company’s comprehensive factor score which has been obtained from using rotated component matrix and eigenvalue is more excellent and accurate; Fifthly, compared with non-financial indicators, financial indicators plays a more critical role in financial early warning of enterprises; Sixthly, the accuracy of the financial early warning model will be affected by false financial data which is caused by the corrupt practice of listed company, so it isn’t that high.Based on the above research, this paper has given some suggestions on how to enhance the manufacturing listed companies’ financial early warning capability: Firstly, to build a better information system and perfect financial early warning system; Secondly, to strengthen the supervision of enterprise information, conduct professional skills’training related to information and crisis management among employees, establish full awareness of crisis; Thirdly, to strengthen corporate governance from four aspects of enhancing the assessment of enterprise managers’ thinking and professional quality, introducing the one who possesses high professional skills to take on the outside directors and supervisors, accepting the supervision of government agencies, social workers, accounting firms and other public organizations. In addition, this paper has pointed out the shortcomings in the research and prospected the further research.