Research Of China And Mexico's Amount Of Similarity On Export Trade To America

China and Mexico are developing countries in Asia and Latin America respectively; the foreign trade has developed rapidly and an obvious increase has shown in the exports, which make the countries both become leaders in the developing countries and regions, under the impetus of regional integration and economic globalization in recent years. However, bilateral trade volume between the two countries is not very large, which accounts for a very small proportion of their total trade volume. The reason why the two countries can be connected together lies in:US has occupied a very important share in their export markets both.With the development of the two countries, trade in manufactured goods has played a great role in their exports and cross regions has appeared in products and market structure in both countries, thus emerging the statement on the intense trade competition between China and Mexico and even the so-called "China threat theory". Does the trade competition between the two countries really exist? US has became China's largest trading partner in recent years, while US could also be Mexico's largest export market because of Mexico's geographical advantage and trade complementarities, so does the trade competition between the two countries become more fierce? If the two countries have a competitive export trade, then in which specific industries does the competition exist? How is the performance of these specific industries in both countries? Is there any measures taken to make the two countries avoid competition? This paper will research on these issues and provide answers to these questions.This paper mainly studies the competitive relations of export trade between China and Mexico in US markets. Based on comparative advantage theory and factor endowment theory, it analyzes the two countries'endowments and comparative advantages determined by endowments. It analyzes the two countries'trade competitiveness in US markets and the comparative advantages of their products through utilizing Export Similarity Index (S(ih,k)) and Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA). And then it builds ARMA model to forecast the changing trend of export similarity index in both countries. Due to these studies, this paper finally proposes some resolving measures on how to avoid trade competition.