The Research Of Measure Method And Empirical Analysis Of Our Country's Monetary Liquidity Under The Perspective Of Macro

In recent years, the problem of excess liquidity has become a hot spot of outside. The study of domestic and abroad about liquidity mainly focuses on the connotation and influence factors of excess liquidity, etc., with little measurement. However, the objective judgment on whether the excess liquidity exists or not is the key for people to understand this problem scientifically and solve it. To this end, the thesis launches on the research of liquidity in terms of measure method.In the paper, liquidity means to measure the deviation between the real money supply and the equilibrium under the perspective of macro. From the basic theory of liquidity measure, we attempt to design the total coefficient of liquidity with five measure indicators and a multi-index evaluation method. According to the characteristics under the normal distribution of large sample of data and statistical perspective, we have established the measure model and criterion to measure whether liquidity excess exists or not suitable for China.It selects the quarterly data from 1995 to 2009 as samples to Empirical analyze the conditions of liquidity excess in China. The quarterly data from 1995 to 2006 are used for establishing the measure model and criterion to measure whether liquidity excess exists or not. Thus, it measures and analyzes the condition of liquidity of the remaining data.The results shows:the liquidity of the second and third quarters of 2007 and the second quarter of 2008 is reasonable; the first quarter of 2008 is insufficient. Except these, liquidity is excess. Especially, the liquidity strength of the first and second quarters of 2009 is very large, especially in the second quarter, reaching the maximum.