Analysis Of Hydraulic Research On Risk Aversion--An Empirical Analysis Of TFE Implementation Of The Operational Phase

Hydraulic characteristics of the project itself determine the risk of high probability. To the extent possible to avoid and reduce the risk of losses occurring, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive risk management system. However, the risk quantification is a crucial aspect of this paper on risk control theory and identification methods, risk factors and response measures, the risks of early warning and so on have done a detailed, in reading literature and reference books on the basis of an instance of, the author of three water projects full life cycle of the process of three simple data, for example, combined with on-site construction work experience, made the following findings:1) According to the moral hazard model, fuzzy evaluation method and game theory, only know that on the basis of a simple tender offer, through the expert fuzzy evaluation method for winning the bidding process that exist in the price of moral issues, proposed incentives to consider the case of a win-win determine the winning bid units, to maximize the tender stage to avoid moral hazard.2) For the classic PERT network, the assumptions and calculations of the deviation, analysis of the shortcomings of its proposed amendments to the PERT network model, from the intersection of intersection of three different methods point of view of the critical path to find re-defined and determined. Three-point method and in accordance with procedures established by the network diagram, calculate the probability of project completion risk, the owner and construction unit to determine progress of the project plans to provide an intuitive basis.3) the first time from a second-order sensitivity analysis method and the Combination, an example to calculate the probability of the risk of operational period, and qualitative analysis of the economic feasibility of operating period earnings.The results of this study risk prevention and response to the water conservancy project, there are certain projects in the practical application of the meaning and reference value.