The Comparative Research On Corporate Financial Early-warning Model

With the quickening of global economic integration paces, enterprises of our country, while meeting opportunity for development, will face fiercer market competition too. Where there is competition, there is risk. As various kinds of risks that enterprises face gather to certain extent, if enterprises can't take the measure of in time, enterprises will fall into the financial crisis. It is one of the hot questions that the modern financial theory circle and practice circle study to strengthen the prevention and control of enterprise's financial crisis and to structure a high-efficient, sensitive, practical financial early-warning system. However, the financial early- warning model is the foundation and key of quantitative analysis of the financial early warning system. So it is very urgent and necessary for enterprise's financial early-warning model question of our country to carry on research.The research purpose of this paper is to use many kinds of modern methods to structure enterprise's financial early-warning model of our country based on the domestic and international financial early-warning model, to carry on comparative analysis of many kinds of financial early-warning models from two respects of the theory and empiricism, and to screen the suitable operating strong, high-accurate financial early-warning model finally. This paper is divided into six chapters.Chapter 1 analyzed the background and meaning of the paper, and reviewed the research condition in domestic and abroad. And it described the research purpose, method and context of this paper. Chapter 2 analyzed enterprises' financial early warning relevant theory including financial risk and financial crisis, financial early warning system, financial crisis and financial early warning. Chapter 3 analyzed about the model and method of financial early warning. The chapter analyzed one-variable model and limitation at first, then analyzed traditional multiple variables model, finally the construction methods of four kinds of modern financial early warning models are analyzed one by one. Chapter 4 is the empirical analysis of financial early-warning model. Firstly selected ten index of financial early-warning, and then introduced 2003 financial report of the listed companies to construct analytic samples including 50 good performance stocks and 50 ST stocks and to construct keeping samples including 34 good performance stocks and 16 ST stocks. And constructed four financial early-warning models by Fisher Discriminant, Logistic, Principal Component, and BP Network and examined the forecast result for analytic samples and keeping samples. Chapter 5 is the comparative analysis of four modern financial early-warning models from two respects of the theory and empiricism. In order to examine and compare leading prediction ability of models this chapter selected 18 newly-increased ST Stocks in 2004(up to April 30, 2004) as test sample of leading prediction, and screened 10 same financial index from 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 financial reports of these companies as test sample data. Chapter 6 summarized the research conclusion and limitation of this paper.