The Research Of Stock Price Forecasting Based On The Philosophy Of Value Investing

In this paper, on the basic of the theory of value investing of different schools, I will make a systematic improvement and integration about this theory. From a static theory which emphasize the valuation of tangible assets, Graham as the representative, to dynamic theory of value which is represented by the Philip·Fisher concerning the company's future earnings growth. And integrate the two in order to create a mature set of available modes and methods for practice.The content of this article covers six chapters, I will make a discussion from the following aspects involved stock investment. for the second chapter I will discourse some key concepts of investment; and this chapter is divided into three parts which is involved all aspects of value investing, The first part is a distinction between the concept of investment and speculation; The second and third part is about three commonly used valuation methods, while I will talk about three concepts of "PE", "intrinsic value" of "margin of safety" and the relations between the three. the third chapter include three parts which talk the psychological factors of the stock market participants, and its impact on the market, the first part is about the process of psychological factors affecting the market; In the second part ,I will try to explore the causes of the financial market volatility, and result the nature of financial market volatility to human mental fluctuations and some of the characteristics of human nature; The third part is a quantitative analysis about the commission and tax factors, also demonstrated the reason why value investors must be long-term investors. The fourth chapter has five parts which make a Summary of problem on the operational level. the first part is about buying opportunity and raised a method"the Knee of profit";the second part is a summary of the five principles about buying ; the third part is about the timing to sell; the fourth part is bout different types of trading under different companies; and the fifth part is a discussion of the conservative investment strategy of investing .The sixth chapter makes a summary above five chapters; and make an incomplete set of investment philosophy.