Issues On The Risk Of Forestry Investment In Collective Forest Areas In Fujian

The forestry investment is one kind of new asset investments, no matter in the resources benefit or in the ecological environment aspect, both has much friendly development potential to the forestry construction. While we encourage the forestry investment, we must clearly recognize all sorts of investment risk which the forestry characteristic brings. Only we pay attention to both forestry investment risks'research and the guards that can safeguard the forestry investment develop well and quickly.In the forestry investment, how does the investor appraise, the management as well as the circumvention risk, and enhances the forestry investment yield under this kind of risk as far as possible is the first matter of concern for all investors, simultaneously is also the goal of forest science research to which promote the forest resources' sustainable use. However, How to achieve this goal, the investor was still short of the essential theory basis, specially in aspect of the distribution of risk, the policy-making basis and the guard aspect, and still puzzled how to construct a systematically of risk management mechanism that conforms to the region forestry characteristic. Therefore, there have very big theory and practical value to starts to conduct the research to the risk of forestry investment with these problems, it will enhances the rationality in forestry investment and forestry operating decisions, it also will enhances the enthusiasm from society various aspects to development forestry, realizes the goal that pays with the low cost to sustainable develops the forestry.This article through the widespread collection consult material and the literature, ways and so in-the-spot investigation, the union had the research results and the risk theory to the forestry investment risk correlation theories connotation, the characteristic and the category carries on the summary to summarize, and based on this, using the game theory method, the expert consults methods and so on law, analytic hierarchy process and option theory launches to the forestry investment risk research. Its research content and the achievement may summarize for the following four parts:1.Using the game theory method to analyze the relationship between mutual restraint and the drive relations in the forestry investment, and after research we find the Nash's balanced between the risk investor and the entrepreneur .and according it we find out the best way to involve it. At the same time, I made some decision to the risk probability in the forestry investment.2.I made some researches on investment risk target in Fujian province according to the consults from the expert,the frequency analysis way and so on. The research has constructed the forestry investment risk indicator system which adapts with the Fujian Province forestry condition. its construction indicator system including target stratum, host factor level and sub-factor level, and include 5 main factors (B1-B5), respectively be natural hazards (B1), social risks (B2), market risk (B3), policy risk (B4) and operational risk (B5). The sub-factor level includes 20 sub-factors (C1-C20).3.On the foundation of constructing the forestry investment risk evaluating indicator system in Fujian Province, used the analytic hierarchy process to analysis and evaluate various targets, the measure results showed that the first five risk factors of the index weight were respectively the technical level of management, the cutting quota, the stability and continuity of policy, the operator quality and the technical level of production. According to the sorting result, we can know that if we want to control the risk of forestry investment project, the investors and operators must pay the key attention to the change of forest policy, deepen understanding of the forestry industry, promote their own quality, meanwhile must reference the successful experiences of the domestic and foreign forestry investment and management, keep in line with high and new forestry technology, strengthen the management and protection of forestry project. Besides, used the real options theory to sort the index weight, which confirmed that using the two sorting method had small errors. On this basis, used the real options method to construct the decision model of forestry investment project, and analyzed the applicability of models combined with examples.4.Using the prevention system's principle of project risk management, analyzed and discussed the recognition of forestry investment risk of Fujian, the constraint condition of risk prevention and the risk security system. At the same time, on the foundation of constructing the forestry investment risk evaluating indicator system, binding the present situation of forestry in Fujian, using the experts consultation method to construct the monitoring index system of forestry investment risk of Fujian. And according to the constraint condition of risk prevention of Fujian, suggested that the investors and the entrepreneurs must use as reference other industries'measure and method of risk prevention then innovated, constrained the forestry enterprise risk prevention system of Fujian, and the prevention measures and suggestions of the controllable risk and uncontrolled risk during forestry investment process were proposed.