Chinese National Saving Ratio Structure And Its Relationship With Stock Market And The Real Estate Market

Recently, as the rapid development of china, the national saving ratio is ascending, which has drawn more and more economists' attention. Our national saving ratio has been ascending quickly after 1999:in 1999, our national saving ratio was 36.2%,but the number is high to 51.3% in the year 2008,which has already surpassed the consumption ratio. In one side, the high saving ratio means there are plenty of capital for investment, which guarantee the high speed of economy development. In the other side, while the ratio stays high, many problems emerge. In the condition that the international finance crisis hasn't been solved and our national economic structure needs restructuring, the topic of the economic activities becomes how to transfer the way of economic growth from depending on fixed capital investment and export to expanding domestic demand. Therefore, how to increase social consumption and decrease saving ratio are the keys to the sustainable development of Chinese economy.High saving ratio signals problems of our weak domestic demand, which means the money may probably rush into the stock market and real estate market, pushing the stock price and real estate price high. Meanwhile, the stock market and real estate market play very important roles in the economy, so the healthy developments of the two markets benefit the economy, otherwise can badly harm the economy.We separate the national saving ratio into household saving ratio, company ratio and government ratio. Knowing each parts of the national saving ratio helps us to understand the whole. Discussing the relationship between the stock market and real estate market and each parts of the national saving ratio also provide a new point of view to the capital market research.This paper can be divided into two parts:Part One mainly elaborate on the national saving structure, which is divided into household saving ratio, company ratio and government ratio. It also compares with other countries and analyzes the character of Chinese saving ratio structure, and explains the cause of formation. Part Two mainly discusses the relationship between national saving ratio and stock market, the real estate market, theoretically and empirically. In order to analyze the relationship between national saving ratio and stock market, the real estate market systematically, we adopt the structural VAR model as our empirical study method.