Environment Risk Assessment Of AHF Project And The Research Of Risk Uncertainties

Many chemical products and raw materials have the toxicity, the flammability or the reactivity. Which decides that accident of chemical project is multiple and grave. Since 1980s, environment risk assessment have been started in our country,it is a important component of the environmental impact assessment, and display the vital practical significance in risk project's decision-making and the construction. However, the risk assessment case are very few in certain professions and domain, the collected materials and datas is also very limited. At the same time, present risk assessment technologies is imperfect in our country, have some flaws more or less. Particularly the uncertainties in the process of risk assessment, which puzzled many of appraising workers and the project's policy-makers.First of all, accessing to relevant information,This paper introduce the definition of risk assessment, the domestic and foreign developing course and present situation, show the significance of this paper. Then, introduce some techniques that is often used in present risk assessment. The risk assessment case of AHF project is very few, so paper construct the appraisal system and the method route aiming at this profession. Take Gansu Yongchang AHF project as a example, and assess this project's environment risk, analyze systematically all risk in the memory process of the AHF project's goods and middle materials, the product manufacturing process, find out the risk sources, and forecasts the harm's scope and degree. While draws its conclusion to this specific item, I hoped this paper is profit for other risk assessment of chemical project,especially AHF project.There are many uncertainties in the environment risk assessment. Taking the case's leakage for example, this paper analy and study some uncertainties in the process of calculating accident's probability, determining leakage source, applying diffusion model, assessing accident's damage results. Meantime, this paper puts for word some corresponding solving conception. Hopes these research, may provide the relevant ideas for other workers or the researchers, and is benifit for the development of risk assessment method. Meanwhile, this paper can make some project's policy-makers and assess workers recognize the nature and flaws of risk assessment objectively and scientifically.Through study of the case, the paper find out where is the AHF project's risk,and think the probability of the accident is very small. But once the accident occurs, the consequence will be very serious. Meteorology, terrain and so on influence accident's harm scope. The reasonable location of project may reduce the accident's harm, but the disaster inside of factory is inevitable.After analyzing and studying risk assessment uncertainties, this paper think that the uncertainty is main difficulty in the appraisal and the decision-making process. We are unable to overcome some questions at present, but through some positive methods, the uncertainty question can be reduced. Simultaneously, the uncertainties increase along with the appraisal rank and request level. However, which does not mean environment risk does not be assessed or the conclution is invalid as a result of the uncertainties existence. Only knowing the question scientifically, then reduce or solve the question possibly and well.