Techniques Of Early-warning And Decision-making In Supply Chain Based On PETRI Nets

The 21 century, as the high pace of technology development, product replacement and the incentive market competition, supply-chain risks are no longer not be ignored. All aspects of the harm brought about by the risk of the supply chain has greatly influenced the supply chain efficiency and also have underestimated impact on the company and people. The researches about the problems of the risk of supply chain should be met for us. This paper focuses on the research and development of supply chain early-warning and decision-support technology a, detecting the unwanted situations and potential risks in advance, which brings the possibility of taking preventive decisions to mitigate the variations.According to the current status in the risk of supply chain management, the paper proposes a supply chain risk early-warning and decision-support technology based on Petri nets modeling. Firstly, we modeled the supply chain through the Petri Nets, then obtained all stages of the supply chain data by simulation as the source of data for early warning. Secondly, We decompose the supply chain risk into two elements: metadata and KPI model. These two elements are served as monitor control index. The early warning is then provided according to the developmental trend of the monitor control index. Metadata was mainly concerned about the events set by inventory management. In the KPI model, one type of performance indicators were obtained through performance analysis, the other were established through steady-state probability based on Petri nets performance analysis. At last, we proposed corresponding decision-making methods in the basis of early-warning events, as for the meta-data-based early warnings, we selected linear programming algorithm to solve them, and as for the KPI-model-based early warnings, we firstly decentralized them to the local optimization of the various departments ,and then came to a simple decision-making method.This paper first described the characteristics of the risks within the supply chain , then the methods of supply chain modeling as well as the existing state of supply chain risk research showing the difficulties of the study on the making precautions and decisions of the supply chain risk. On this basis, this paper selected the supply chain at the tactical level on the internal risk as the research object, in order to solve the hidden dangers that may arise in one day, one week or one month. then proposed that we should address three major issues to solve this problems, saying monitoring platform, making precautions and decisions, as the following, proposed the technical route --- Petri Nets modeling, supply chain performance analysis, decision theory,. In practice, this paper has simulated a part production supply chain model given the Petri nets simulation model. According to this model, we then carried out the corresponding system framework establishment, system designation, and finally system implementation. The results of simulation demonstrate that this model can not only effectively imitate the operating conditions of supply chain, but also accurately discover the abnormality of monitor control index. This provide a new and practical way to study the supply chain risk early-warning and decision-making.