Appreciation Of The RMB Context Of Our Country Merchandise Exports Countermeasures

With the continuous development of the global economy and the deepening ofinternational division of labor, the economic ties of each country and the world is gettingcloser and closer.30years of reform and opening up to foreign trade, export-orientedstrategy to accelerate the global manufacturing industry to transfer to China to act as theimproving status of "world factory", China’s big trade power forward.With economic development, China has already surpassed the United States andGermany became the world’s largest exporter. Development and an imbalance of China’smerchandise exports, the export trade, there are some problems: a single exportcommodity structure mainly machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneousmanufactured articles and raw materials classified other commodity exports mainly othertypes of merchandise exports is relatively small; export commodities low technologycontent and added value; the high degree of external dependence, the merchandise exportmarket is relatively concentrated, mainly in the United States, Japan and other developedcountries as the main market, but the growth rate of exports of primary products andindustrial products in Brazil and other emerging countries than fast. The development ofChina’s export trade also affected by external factors, especially in recent years, the RMBunder increasing pressure to appreciate RMB presents the trend of appreciation trend.RMB appreciation will also affect the exchange rate mechanism commodity exports, butthe extent to which commodity exports, the major concern.In this paper, both theoretical and empirical study of RMB appreciation on China’smerchandise exports, to provide a reference to refer to the role of government exporttrade policy. Johansen cointegration test found that the primary product exports ofmanufactured goods exports and total exports of goods, SITC classification ofmerchandise exports and the RMB exchange rate and foreign market demand existslong-term cointegration relationship; from the long-term co-integration relationshipbetween the RMB appreciation will lead to the increase in exports of primary productsand manufactured goods, will promote the increase of the SITC classification ofmerchandise exports; demand in foreign markets with exports of primary products, manufactured goods exports, total exports of goods and SITC classification ofmerchandise exports are positively correlated, but also increase in demand of foreignmarkets makes China’s merchandise exports increased. Based on the VAR model’simpulse response analysis showed that the appreciation of the renminbi is not conduciveto the improvement of the structure of export trade; foreign market demand andeconomic growth in China will be conducive to the improvement of the structure ofexport trade; RMB appreciation will reduce the international competitiveness of primaryproducts and manufactured goods China’s economic growth will improve theinternational competitiveness of primary products and manufactured goods, the increasein demand in foreign markets is not conducive to raising the level of internationalcompetitiveness of primary products will promote raising the level of internationalcompetitiveness of the industrial products.This article is divided into six parts: Part I Introduction, introduces the researchbackground, research status, the theoretical and practical significance of this study. Thesecond part introduces the theory of comparative advantage theory and appreciation ofthe renminbi affect exports. The third part introduces yuan tend appreciation of the RMBappreciation of the causes and mechanism of affecting exports. The fourth part describesthe characteristics of China’s total export trade and international competitiveness of thestatistical analysis of the SITC classification of merchandise exports and our export trade.The fifth part of the RMB appreciation on China’s export trade, the introduction of thevariable selection, model building and data processing and empirical analysis. Part VI isthe conclusions and policy recommendations, based on empirical analysis and thecharacteristics of China’s commodity exports, the Policy Implications.