Forecast And Application For Handan’s Freight Volume Based On Wavelet Neural Network

Freight volume is an important indictors for determining the logistic needs ofthe region. Reasonable freight volume is the basis for determining the scale ofregional logistics infrastructure construction scale, for the network layout andregional logistics development direction. The aims to forecast freight volume is tomake regional logistics service, to maintain a balance between supply and demand,to maintain high effectiveness and efficiency in the regional logistics.The paper firstly introduces the research background and significance, andsummarizes the domestic and foreign research situation about regional freight volumeprediction. It introduces related theory and characteristics of the regional logistics.Regional freight volume forecast is based on the practical prediction method, and putforward based on the regional freight volume forecast data for the purpose of alogistics park covers an area of planning. Due to the logistics demand is relativelydifficult to measure, the article with object more appropriate analysis of the regionalfreight volume so that achieve the effect of quantitative data. Secondly, this paperanalyzes the main influencing factors of regional freight volume, such as regionaleconomy, regional industry structure and build the index system of regional freightvolume forecast. Thirdly, as the main method used in this paper, WNN is introducedand how to establish model and solve it. Last, the regional freight volume isforecasted by using WNN model, the forecasting result was rationality examination,and the rationality of the prediction results is tested the predicted results of proves thefeasibility and validity of the WNN in comparison with Exponential smoothing,multivariate regression and grey prediction model. On the basis of the forecast results,The amount of land and number of logistics park are planned.