Empirical Analysis On Export Factors

The export volume of Guangdong and Jiangsu is NO.1 and NO.2 in China, but it has shown differences on the feedback of export to the financial crisis since 2008. At the point of feedback mechanism and causes of the differences, this paper analyses Guangdong and Jiangsu's export influence factors; compares the differences of export product structure, mode of export, product factor intensity between the two provinces.In classical Export Equation, import volume and real exchange rate are the main factors of export growth, but the author has expanded the factors of Export Equation to economy factors, scientific factors, and institutional factors then theoretically compares the differences of regional economy development, foreign trade scale and speed, export product structure, direction of foreign trade, export mode and export interdependency between Guangdong and Jiangsu.According to the above analysis, we argue that:on export product structure, development speed of Jiangsu's Hi-Tech product export is faster than Guangdong and its proportion is larger than Guangdong; on foreign trade mode, Jiangsu's export gives first place to general trade and Guangdong's export gives first place to feeding processing trade; on export interdependency, Jiangsu's is higher than Guangdong's; on export product structure, Jiangsu has the tend to capital and technology intensive products export while Guangdong takes priority to the labor intensive products export. As a result of the above differences, the export feedback to financial crisis of Guangdong is more serious than Jiangsu.Based on the above normative analysis the paper sets up time serial model. On the basis of annual data from 1990-2007 of the VAR model, the empirical analysis includes unit roots test, AR roots test, co-integration test, co-integration model estimation, granger causality test and variance decomposition. This paper studies the influence of export factors on export and gives suggestions on export policy adjustment and export product structure update. The comparative studies between Guangdong and Jiangsu can be extended to Chu Chiang Delta and Chang Chiang Delta. How to transform from "made in China" to "created in China" can be further studied.