| In the end of 2008, the Central Bank's monetary policy began to change from tightness to moderate easiness. Starting with the September 2008, the Central Bank cut deposit and lending rates for five consecutive times. The lending rates about 7.47 percent in early 2008 fell to 5.31 percent at the end of 2008, which lowered 216 basis points. Also the Central Bank lowered the deposit-reserve ratio for four consecutive times and the deposit-reserve ratio of the grand financial organizations was reduced to 15.5 percent. Canceling the control of those commercial banks credit quota, and indicating all kinds of commercial banks directly from quantity and delivery, which made the credit surge at the last two months of 2008. In the open market, reducing the intensity of the Central Bank ticket distribution. It was the effects of the series of the accommodative monetary policy that made the domestic credit grow unprecedentedly, the investment in the fixed asset rebounded immediately, the real economy began to rise again. From January to September in 2009, the foreign currency loans in all financial institutions increased by 9.3 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year, up by 5.6 multi-trillion yuan. Beginning of the year RMB loans increased by 8.7 trillion yuan, went up more than of 5.2 trillion yuan, so macroeconomic quotes had a great impact on the credit risk of commercial banks. The above datas showed us that although China was affected by the crisis, China's credit expanded fastly, until the third quarter, our loan volume was still maintained rapid growth momentum. Each part of the community doubted that the reasonableness and sustainability of this growth:whether the large-scale proliferation of credit had sufficient driving force to the development of the economy, and because of the credit surge in the process, whether China's commercial banks'ability of controling risk could keep up with the development of scale, and whether it would be a hint of another round of crisis. As the commercial bank credit channel is one of the most important transmission mechanism of the economic cycle, in the backdrop of economic fluctuations, macroeconomic adjustment impact on the operation of commercial banks was mainly reflected in the amount of credit which varied with the economic cycle. This round of economic adjustment, not only used in 2009, but also a continuity, such a development had already affected the commercial banks, the net interest margin decreased, the middle business declined, the quality of credit assets reduced, which increased the level of risk of commercial bank credit. Thus, under the current economic policy, studying the credit risk management has a practical significance.China's macro-econbmic policy seeks to keep the economic cycle stage at the uplink phase. For the intention, what a commercial bank should do to reduce the credit risk under the premise of the consistency of economic policy, and this problem will be solved in this thesis. The basic idea of this article is based on the economic cycle and the relationship between commercial bank credit cycle, under the premise of analyzing the current macroeconomic situation, point out the specific changes in commercial bank credit, then analyze commercial branding for changes in bank credit, and identify the specific reason that caused commercial banks in credit risk management difficulties in the process of change, at last, find the remedy and propose solutions to the reasons. Dealing,with micro-problems through macro-perspective is the main idea of this passage. In other words, the bank credit risk is closely related with the economic cycle. A good grasp of the economic cycle will be able to predict changes in credit conditions, therefore we can manage credit risk. In the course of the study, this article is based on that the commercial bank credit has a pro-cyclical, and regard the pro-cyclical of credit as the bridge between the change of the macro-economy and the credit risk, which is a key component of this article. In this paper, the structure is divided into six parts, the first part is the Introduction, the section introduces the meaning, scope, research ideas and research methods; the theory, which introduces the theoretical basis in the second part, is the beginning of the subject of the article. Since this paper begins with the analysis of the macroeconomic situation, so this part introduces the economic cycle theory at first, pointing out that the economic cycle is the fluctuationsof the national total output, total income and total employment. And then make an introduction to the research of the former economic cycle at home and abroad, finally, find the relationships of the economic cycle with the credit cycle and credit risk. The third part is the introduction of China's current macro-economic conditions and credit conditions. In this section reveal the current economic situation through the current macro-level data at first, and and compare the environment at home and abroad on the current scenarios to find the direction of economic development that still needed injection of funds in order to ensure the good economic continuation. And then is the current credit condition in China, in the support of the relevant datas and graphics, get to know about a number of characteristics of current credit conditions:First, a loan has a clearly pro-cyclical character; Second, credit incrementes become larger, beginning in 2009 year on year, the increment is always increasing, and it is relatively large; Third, its growing speed is very fast, a new round of growth began in January 2009, there appears surge phenomenon; Fourth, the credit growth structure is lack of coordination, which requires destination and duration of the loan to study, according to the Central Bank relevant datas, the loan for the fixed investment compared with the consumer loans, and long-term loans compared with short-term loans, the growth rate and the increase in the amount of the former were greater than the latter, and the gap between them is large; Fifth, the savings and loan growth are basically consistent, but because of the slump in the international market, which affects imports and exports, there appears no equilibrium in foreign exchange savings and loan cases. Finally, analyze the current characteristics comprehensively and obtain conclusion that the current expansion of China's credit policy is caused by the situation. Finally, discuss the current economical situation's impacts on the credit cycle, which are based on the pro-cyclical theory of the commercial bank credit. And propose the tendency of the current macroeconomic situation. The main influences of the economic situation to China's commercial banks reflect the following aspects:the economic growth is significant, but slow recovery; it still needs credit and the credit cycle is in the expansion phase of the conclusions, and conclusions will be described.The fourth part is under the new situation, the credit cycle changes have influences on China's commercial credit risks. In the previous theoretical basis and under the premise of macroeconomic fundamentals, pay attention to the analysis of the influences, which mainly from the expansion in bank credit, low-interest background, the reduction of the net interest margin, the falling of the asset adequacy ratio and unbalanced structure. And get the result that the management of commercial bank credit risk liquidity becomes more difficult, according to the credit in the period, in the number that whether balanced or not, in the profit whose growth is not proportional with the line of credit, in operational irregularities and several other issues, the risk increased. The fifth part shows the internal and external reasons why appear the current status of the credit risk under the current credit situation. The last section is put forward countermeasures and suggestions according to the reasons.After finish this article, I add a postscript to the end od it, which write my weaknesses in this article. In this paper, the process of research related to the integrated use of economic theory analysis, the article is the establishment of the economic cycle theory, the credit-cycle theory, the credit risk management theory. An advantage of this article is that the material and datas are the latest, the question discussed is inspired by the views of many economists. The main contribution of the article is to have a strong practical significance, since commercial bank credit has many effects on the macroeconomy, such effects are not only reflected in the currency markets, but also in the capital markets, for example, the stock market in the first half of 2009 was mainly pushed up by the credit funds, if there is no rapid credit expansion, China's stock market can not dominate the world. At the same time, the relevant market, in turn, affect the commercial bank credit, such as the stock market and commercial banks can benefit from each other:commercial banks credit expansion enhaces market liquidity, so the stock market rise, while the stock market boom can be added the huge capital to commercial banks, and commercial banks with the constant sources of capital can continue to expand credit; but commercial bank's capital fund has been stretched to the limitation, to increase the credit, it must issue amounts of the stock to add capital, while the huge issue of shares will increase the supply of the stock market, which lead the stock market to break down. China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Industrial Bank, after they announced the financing plan in August, the stock fell more than 20%, whose performance is made clear to investors. Therefore, we can see that the tightness of the current monetary policy determines the size of a future credit caliber, and the size of future credit caliber ask for more requirements of the commercial bank's own credit risk management. If the commercial banks in credit risk can not be managed reasonablely, it can't make sure the economy will be a real recovery in the market, because the impact not only on the operation of commercial banks, but also on the macro-policy support. At the same time, because the situation of commercial bank credit is not controlled enough, the money market and capital market risks resulted from commercial banks will in turn affect. Thus at the present time, discussing the management of commercial bank credit risk is no doubt to pave the way for rapid and sustained recovery for our economy in the future. |
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