Under The Perspective Of Life Cycle Enterprise Credit Risk Research

According to statistics, bank loans accounted for almost80%of corporate liabilities in China, some even as high as90%. Huge bad loans caused by corporate financial crisis and bank payment crisis triggered by bankruptcies have become the main credit risk faced by commercial banks. Corporate credit risk level has close links with enterprise life cycle. Enterprises in different life cycle stages have different characteristics, facing different risks, thus have different credit risk level.This paper will conduct an empirical study about corporate credit risk from the perspective of life cycle theory. Firstly, this paper divides corporate life cycle into four stages, that is start-up, growth, maturity and decline as well as analyze and elaborate risks of these stages. Secondly, this paper adopts cash flow classification method to analyze the symbol features of cash flows in the corporate life cycle stages in order to summarize the classification method of corporate life cycle. Thirdly, this paper selects enterprises of IT Industry as the research object. Combining with cluster analysis of SPSS17.0software and cash flow classification method, we empirically classify the corporate life cycle. Then, using factor analysis method, this paper extract common factors from initial financial indicators and introduce them into the Logistic Regression Model in order to fit and compare corporate credit risk measurement models of different life cycle stages. Finally, according to the conclusion of model comparison, this paper proposes some suggestions about credit risk management of commercial banks and enterprises. That is when commercial banks lend money to enterprises, they should focus on the risk level and operational efficiency of start-up enterprises, the profitability and operational efficiency of growth enterprises, and the profitability and solvency of maturity enterprises. Meanwhile enterprises in different life cycle stages should select different credit risk management models. Start-up enterprises should focus on prior management model, while growth enterprises on middle management model and maturity enterprises on after management model.