| Equity investment in its high rates of return and high liquidity popular around the world the favor of investors in the Chinese special economic circumstances came the stock market has also been sought after domestic investors, but in China's unique ownership structure and operating mechanism Under the domestic factors affecting the stock price is more complex. China's stock market has just gone through the past 20 springs and autumns, many investors because there is no suitable for the Chinese market, investment analysis tools, "Dan Chen shares the sea";, therefore, to find a suitable for the characteristics of China's stock market investment theory used to guide the investment behavior of investors seem are needed urgently.In this paper, a wide range of literature to read at home and abroad, bio-pharmaceutical industry, a lot of research is only limited to the macro level of certainty, that is, the characteristics of the whole industry, position, status of China's biopharmaceutical development trend analysis, but also on China's bio-pharmaceutical industry and the world bio-pharmaceutical industry development of the prospect, pointing out that bio-pharmaceuticals in the 21st century will have great potential for development. But for bio-pharmaceutical industry's pricing analysis of the relevant literature is extremely rare, only a small number of studies from the previous literature on the basis of minor repairs. For the bio-pharmaceutical industry's pricing using discounted cash flow method, the modified discounted cash flow method as well as real options-based pricing method. Pricing methods for the study of bio-pharmaceutical industry is relatively small, the capital markets can provide reference for investors and their views on the proposed small。This paper studies this as background, the whole bio-pharmaceutical industries a full analysis and demonstration. Development of bio-pharmaceutical industry:(1) Global bio-pharmaceutical industry development is extremely uneven. First, the development level of countries in bio-pharmaceutical industry is highly unbalanced; two biotechnology pharmaceutical product development is extremely uneven. In the United States, the European Union and other major bio-pharmaceutical powers of more than 500 kinds of licensed biotechnology drugs, among the top 10 products accounted for sales of the biopharmaceutical market, over 50%.The first 50 products, animal cell product in terms of both quantity and terms of sales accounted for 65% a 70%. Biomedical industry clearly accelerated, the rapid expansion of market size; the past 20 years of genetic engineering, cell engineering, enzyme engineering, represented by the rapid development of modern biotechnology, human genome project have made significant technological breakthroughs of modern biotechnology in the medical treatment extensive application of bio-pharmaceutical industry to speed up the process significantly. (2) showing the development of bio-pharmaceutical market concentration, product concentration of a significant trend in the developed countries dominate. First, a few developed countries in the global biopharmaceutical market leading position in the industry. In the world pharmaceutical market, the United States, Europe, Japan's three major drug market share of more than 80%. Second, large multinational companies dominate the world patent medicine market. The third is in the product market segments, sales of single-species also show a small degree of market concentration is higher off the trend. (3) The developed countries have formed a number of bio-pharmaceutical industry-intensive areas. (4) strategic technology alliance to become a successful model for drug development. Along with multinational pharmaceutical companies in the global pharmaceutical market position in the rising and its level of industrial concentration and monopoly also shown a rising trend.The status quo of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry is:In 1989, the Chinese Academy of Engineering Hou de R& D Recombinant human interferon alb become the first approved biotech drugs, which marks the Chinese bio-pharmaceutical industry in full swing. Even after 20 years of development, China's bio-pharmaceutical industry has not achieved the expected growth momentum and hence promote China's economic growth did not become a pillar industry. Moreover, with the global bio-pharmaceutical industry and China's basic research in biological science and technology, compared to the rapid development of China's biological industry development is indeed a very backward, and there is a serious duplication of production, firm size is small, low efficiency of the outstanding problems. Biotechnology, pharmaceutical R& D strength of the overall lack of ability to innovate less, as well as our past drug production, review and inadequate investment in intellectual property protection, etc. are also constrained the development of China's biological industry outstanding issues. Investment from China's current situation of bio-pharmaceutical industry:Bio-pharmaceutical industry for the attractiveness of venture capital is not strong, since 2001, China's enterprises in a total of 1080 venture investment funds 4.9857 billion U.S. dollars, but the bio-pharmaceutical sector were only the total number of enterprises and capital 8.5%and 5.2%, far less than other industries. The biotechnology industry in 15 years the history of capital market financing, financing of the biotechnology industry a total of 12.148 billion yuan, these funds are mainly invested in biotechnology, pharmaceutical, biotechnology research, biotechnology, fermentation engineering, modern agricultural biotechnology and other fields. In which the field of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals accounted for 40%of the total financing, is to obtain the largest amount of investment the field of biotechnology industry. In the bio-pharmaceutical field, will benefit the capital market is the biggest genetic engineering, peptide drugs, account for about 5 billion yuan biopharmaceutical half of the capital market and the rest followed by detection reagents, blood products and genetically engineered vaccines.China's biopharmaceutical industry, while facing tremendous opportunities for development:State the importance of biotechnology as well as supportive macroeconomic policies. National has been put, including bio-pharmaceuticals, including biotechnology and focus on the development of new industry as one of the areas, while developing a series of preferential policies. China Biopharmaceuticals has entered into based on the completion of the human genome draft stage of development, people-genome era good expectations. The human genome sequence has been made public, with the precise sequence the human genome map completed mapping the human genome sequence will be fully entered the public gene databases, gene sequences will be no secret at all, China's biopharmaceutical industry is expected to start on a new and foreign pharmaceutical companies to compete. Many biotech drug patents about to expire, China's bio-pharmaceutical industry will have the opportunity to carry out selective imitation. The international biopharmaceutical industry shifting to China. With many large-scale bio-pharmaceutical company in China, China and the foreign large-scale pharmaceutical enterprises and research bodies will be greatly increased. Share in the technology and intellectual property under the premise of integration of resources. Meanwhile, China to medical and health system will give the bio-pharmaceutical industry with great opportunities for development, "the recent focus on medical and health system reform implementation plan (2009-2011). Under the" CPC Central Committee and State Council on Deepening the views of medical and health system reform "(in the Fa (2009) 6, hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"),2009-2011, focus on grasping the five reforms: First, accelerating the basic medical security system, and second, the initial establishment of national essential drugs system, three primary health care are sound service system 4 is to promote the gradual equalization of basic public health services, the five is to promote public hospital reform. ... ... " With China's economic development, national strength has been further enhanced. In the issue of people's livelihood has been attached great importance to the Chinese people see a doctor to solve difficult and expensive "problem. The Government will carry out further medical and health system reform, strengthen medical basic security system so that our people and really enjoy the fruits of economic development. In order to achieve the reform objectives, after a preliminary test 2009-2011 levels of government need to invest 850 billion yuan, of which the central government invested 331.8 billion yuan. With the medical and health system reform, China's grass-roots urban workers and farmers a friend's medical and health demand will be greatly stimulated, it will be a huge market for the development of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry will be a golden opportunity. Making method of choice, the author of direct weighted average method, Wal-Mart scores and efficacy coefficient method, AHP method, fuzzy analysis method were compared, obtained their respective advantages and disadvantages. Finally, this paper adopts an integrated analysis of the factor analysis method, while this further factor analysis are introduced. Using this method involves the selection of factors in this paper according to the characteristics of bio-pharmaceutical industry, has selected eight representative factors:return on assets, net profit margin, fixed asset turnover, accounts receivable turnover, cash flow from operations on the debt ratio, liquidity ratio, main business revenue growth, net profit growth for listed companies on China's bio-pharmaceutical profitability, ability to resist risks, growth capacity, and management capabilities for analysis. The indicator of choice based on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, provided by the 2008 data collection and collation of data obtained in this paper required data. Then by the SPSS statistical software for statistical analysis. Statistics obtained four more significant common factor, according to common factor variance contribution to the overall size of the sub-item is calculated we need to factor scores for each listed company. According to statistics obtained by the market value of the company has clearly ignored the investors of listed companies are:(600796) Qianjiangshenghua, (002252) Shanghailaishi, (000078)Haiwangshengwu, (002038)Shuangluyaoye, (600798)Lukangyiyao, (000930)Fengyuanshenghua, (600866)Xinghukeji, (600195)Zhongmugufen. In accordance with the results of factor analysis of these shares in 2009, with investment value, investors can also be used as'a reference to obtain more than the market average return.(002,007)Hualanshengwu, (600530)Jiaodaangli shares through the two factor scores and comparative analysis of price-earnings ratio, compared to December 31,2008 and other bio-pharmaceutical company is to give its value, which means that the same biological system, Pharmaceutical companies have not been overestimated nor underestimated.This article first bio-pharmaceutical industry to conduct a more in-depth analysis, derived biopharmaceuticals in the 21st century there will be a huge development potential, can bring good returns for investors. However, due to this factor analysis method used in the company's existing management capacity, profitability, growth capacity, anti-risk ability of a relatively narrow analysis, so the conclusions drawn from the analysis of biological pharmaceuticals such as high-tech industries have significant limitations. Hope that investors on the basis of this article by adding time-series data for analysis and tracking trends for the bio-pharmaceutical, real-time data on the bio-pharmaceutical updated to make adjustments in order to facilitate a more objective and fair conclusion of the study in order to invest in On this basis, those who receive excess benefits. |
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