Study On Farmers' Income Growth Based On The Agricultural Products Trade

Farmers' income is the most important problem in the issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. Existing literature study on farmers′income mainly from the perspective of human capital, fiscal and financial support for agriculture, agricultural structure adjustment, rural public goods supply, system innovation and so on, rarely from the perspective of agricultural products trade. So far, few scholars have discussed the mechanism of agricultural trade on the farmers′income growth.Focusing on the theme of farmers′income growth, this paper from the perspective of agricultural products trade, discusses the effect of agricultural products trade on the farmers′income growth, and use the cointegration, Granger causality tests, error correction model, impulse response functions and variance decomposition methods to analyze the relationship between them, in order to put forward some suggestions to promote farmers' income growth based on the mechanism and positive test results. This paper especially discusses the mechanism and the relationship of long-term and short-term between the agricultural products trade and farmers′income growth.The mechanism analysis shows that: from the perspective of agricultural products supply, we can divide agricultural products into four stages: the primary production stage, the primary product sales stage, the primary product processing stage and the products sales stage, and agricultural products trade shows different effects in different stages. Overall, agricultural products trade mainly through the price effect, scale effect, technical effect, employment effect and system effect to affect farmers' income growth. These five effects are not isolated, but they show interrelated, interaction, and mutual restriction. So the relationship between agricultural products trade and farmers′income growth is not the single, static mechanism, but rather a complex, dynamic transmission mechanism.The empirical testing shows that: there is a equilibrium relationship among the agricultural products exports, imports and farmers' income in the long-term, and agricultural products export influence the farmers' income growth much greater than agricultural products import, and agricultural products export is the granger causality to farmers' income growth. In the short term, farmers' income is significantly affected by the adjustment of pre-agricultural export from the short-term fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium; The paths between agricultural exports and agricultural import are very different; Agricultural export has a persistent and significant impact on Peasant Income, while agricultural import has the lag time.Therefore, we should take "to encourage export-oriented, moderate import" of the agricultural trade development strategy. To develop agricultural science and technology, to improve competitiveness of agricultural products, to expand agricultural products trade scale, to optimize agricultural products trade structure, to increase non-farm employment of farmers, to promote labor-intensive agricultural products and to control the imports of agricultural products are effective ways to increase the current farmers' income.