Research On Disaster Loss Prediction Method And Insurance Premium Measurement

Natural disasters are anomalies occurring in nature which have caused great harm to human society. China is one of countries in which natural disasters prevail in the world, particularly in recent years, the disaster of Southern Snowing, 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, the severe Southwest Drought and other serious catastrophic events have had a serious impact on China's economic development and social stability. Therefore, in order to prevent and mitigate the loss on people's lives and property caused by natural disasters and meet the needs of property insurance corporation on the future disaster's development of trend and size, and then determine the reasonable insurance rates on catastrophe, this thesis aims at establishing a scientific disaster model which is a major research topic.To attain this goal, this thesis reviews the current researches on disaster prediction, summarizes the pre-existing disaster predicting theories and methods, and proposes the disaster predicting method based on Fourier series. The degree of disasters is the result of multi-hazard factors, some factors play a long-term and determined role which make the disasters display in increasing (or decreasing) trend, while other hazard factors make the disaster show a kind of cyclical or seasonal trend, which lead to the fluctuation of disaster. In terms of the formation mechanism of loss, the time-series model of Fourier series can depict the disaster loss trend very well. On the above basis, according to the statistic data time series of historical disaster losses and by using SPSS software to fit the Fourier series general model, this study will obtain the fitting equation of disaster prediction model. In addition, by using this method, this investigation conducts empirical researches on direct economic losses data resulted from natural disasters in the year of 1986-2007 in Hunan Province and predicts their effect in the future,and uses it to discuss the calculation method of disaster insurance premium in, they can provide some reference to mitigation hazard decision department.