Analysis On Factors Of Fluctuation And Prediction On Food Prices In China

As a basic product, The fluctuation and market operation of food prices related to the healthy development of the entire national economy, and the interests of producers and consumers. regulation of food prices was the key to the whole situation of national economy. Effectively grasping the various factors affecting the food prices, establishing models to analyze, predicting price changes of the grain market, and developing effective measures to control prices according to the results of the model was not only to promote the development of agricultural production, increase the urgent requirement of farmer income, but also to guide the healthy operation of the grain market and protect equilibrium of the food supply and demand.This paper had carried out a general description and the analysis to the all kinds of article around the domestic and abroad. It had already made clearly achievement and shortcoming in studying currently. Especially to the deficiency studying at homeland and abroad, examined the influence from the commodity attribute, policy attribute and finance attribute of grain. Judging from the commodity attribute, population quantity, the income of resident and consumption structure, grain yield, grain cost of production and household income all had an effect on the supply and demand of food. Judging from the grain policy attribute, grain purchase price, agricultural expenditure of funds, the progress of science and technology, the overall level of consumer prices and food deposit mechanism play a role in stabilizing grain prices.This paper pointed out the effects of various factors on the food prices. Judging from the grain finance attribute, the state of the global economy, international food prices,energy prices and RMB rate would all affect the domestic grain prices. Furthermore we had expressed this relationship through the model, analysas and given suggestions for regulating.At last, The establishment of a comprehensive model predict the future price of grain on the basis of above.This paper mainly focused on the influencing factor of grain prices and corresponding prediction. It was divided into nine parts:Part I was a foreword, Which Introduced the background, purpose and significance, the literature review, the main contents, research methods and technical route. Part II was about the Formation mechanism of food prices and fundamental theory in China, Which Defined the concept of grain, grain prices, narrated the grain price system under the market economy, expounded the connotation,characteristics and theoretical basis of grain price fluctuation, established a rationale for following chapters and sections. Part Ⅲ was the analysis of fluctuations trends of food prices in China. Which had an analysis of the situation of China’s grain price fluctuation since the reform and opening up,and of the operation, trends and policy of food prices in China under the background of global food prices fluctuations In order to pave the way for the following chapters. Part IV is about the analysis of influence factors of food prices. Which studied the food prices from the commodity attribute, policy attribute and finance attribute of grain, proposed that price was affected by a lot of factors, It was that cause fluctuations in grain prices. Part V was the partial equilibrium models of food prices under the framework of supply and demand of domestic.which established the equations of equilibrium of supply and demand through the analysis of a series of factors, and the partial equilibrium models of food prices through the simulation and calculation of the data, analysas the model results and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The sixth part was about the Food prices fuzzy regression model under policy attribute.which Clarified the specific process and method of fuzzy regression, established the model to simulate price fluctuation based on fuzzy theory.The seventh part was about the time sequence analysis model of food prices in financial property.which established two models to simulate price fluctuation considering four factors:the state of the global economy, international food prices.energy prices and RMB rate. The eighth part was about the prediction and time sequence comprehensive model of fuzzy data. Which performed causality relation tests between food prices and fluctuation factors firstly, conducted the prediction and analysis based on the time sequence comprehensive model of fuzzy data. The results show that the model had the very high accuracy prediction. The ninth part was the conclusion and discussion. Which summarized the whole thesis and pointed out the innovation and deficiency.Based on the studying the literature review of domestic and abroad, this paper used one kind of the new visual angle and new method to study the relations between the influencing factors and food prices. These factors were divided into three categories, Based on the analysis of factors, Farmers could see the influence factors on the price in order to make the right decision. According to prediction of multiple models would maybe have a more accurate result, different models were established for fitting aimed at every kind of factor. Through the model simulation, scientific simulating mechanism of food prices could predict the development trend of food prices, and guide the government’s macro-control simultaneously.This paper had built many models in the process of influence factors of grain prices, Used multiple models such as partial equilibrium models, dynamic regression model to fit the grain price operation. Three kinds of attributes of grain was only a qualitative explanation in the previous study. Literature showed that the established models were usuaslly set in a certain field of those.This paper classified all the factors of food prices according to the nature and established the submodel one by one, Unified the comprehensive model of fuzzy data eventually. Considering the scale and comprehensive model, It was first originated. This paper bulit model using fuzzy mathematic modeling method for the first time. Many concepts with fuzzy characteristics in the economic field especially in the food prices field were suitable for this method. This paper introduced fuzzy regression and fuzzy time series analysis in the study of food prices, which was a bold innovation and provided a new way for the future research work in this field.To sum up, the author hoped that through the topic research, it could formulate relevant agriculture macro policies for government, make production decisions for agricultural producers and provide proposal, reference and help for other related subject research.