Study On The Quantitative Area Risk Assessment Model Of Chemical Industrial Park

Assessmenting the overall risk status and carring out the quantitative area risk assessment of the Chemical Industrial Park(CIP) is not only the needs of the enterprises and the surrounding residents to understand the risk around themselves, but also the needs of the government to supervise effectively and overall security plan.Based on the overall safety of the CIP, the thesis studies on the quantitative area risk assessment model of the CIP which is on the planning stage. It definits the quantitative area risk assessment and proposes the model. As main works, it presents the accident consequences analysis method and the regional risks associated analytical method.In the part of the accident consequence analysis, it focuses on the destructive effects of the explosion fragments. In this part, it studies on the damage mechanism, injury criteria, the probability of causing death or equipments'chain accident, and derives formulas of flighting distance, being combated probability of targets and actual failure probability of equipments. Then, on this basis, it derives the probability formula of causing accident while the fragments combate objects.Based on the theory of grey correlation, it presents the risk correlation analysis method which is used to analysis the risk correlation value between the projects, and discusses the grading method of the risk correlation according to the smooth handling idea.Finally, the model and methods presented in the thesis have been applied to Shenyang Chemical Industrial Park successfully. The results provide a sufficient basis for the safety planning, developing accident emergency rescue plan, taking targeted safety measures of the park. The applying results show that the method of risk correlation analysis has good practicality in the quantitative area risk assessment of the CIPs.