Studies On The Diffusion Trend And Determinant Factors Of Mobile Telephony In China

This dissertation makes one study on the trend and determinate factors of diffusion of mobile telephony in China based on the classical diffusion models, which gives a new visual angle to understand the reform and development of mobile communication market. The boundary of market will expand for the diffusion of the cellular phone, for which has been regarded as fundamental also kernel vigor for the development of mobile communication market, and this favorable situation would be all-important for the MEPs(mobile equipment providers),MNOs(mobile network operators) and SPs(service providers) in the market. The analysis of the diffusion of mobile telephony since 1987 which includes four sections can also been viewed as the study on the dilation and vicissitude of the market. Section I gives one review about the innovation course of mobile communication industry in the last 22 years, that is from 1987 to 2008.And it is wrote following the reform phases, also includes four parts:PartⅠdescribes the reform until the year 1998, which includes the separate operation of Post and Communications industry, the Establishment of China Unicom, and so on.Part II makes one analysis of the first round reform which has the characters of separate operation of business lines. Then partⅢand IV have the review of the innovation course of round two and three respectively. SectionⅡanalyses the evolution of market structure of mobile communication market based on the reform background depicted by the part I since the year 1987, when the mobile service has been introduced to China., and since then the Marshall dilemma has been ameliorated especially in the year 1995 when the China Unicom has began to have real operation power with about 28 thousands subscribers, also found the acceleration of diffusion process of mobile phone in China.And then the model analysis has been carried out with the background of reform also the market depicted by the preceding analyses include section I andⅡ. As the first stage of model analysis, the analysis of trend of diffusion of mobile phone in this country based on the five classical diffusion models constituted the sectionⅢof the text replied the questions as market absorption capacity, market expansion speed as well as inflection point, and the demand forecast for the next five years, that is from 2009 to 2013, has been done based on the conclusions of the trend analysis. And about 89% of the population in China will adopt this service (mobile phone) in the future means that the expectation accumulation number of subscribers will be 1,181,938,000 households, while the surplus capacity of the market still have a big room with 540,707,800 households, which gives the reasons to have the conviction that we will have the biggest market all through the world in recent years. The trend analysis has not provided the complete information of the diffusion of mobile phone in our country, and a more profound understanding will be got by the model analysis of the determining factor of diffusion in the fifth chapter of the paper.The quantitative relations between the diffusion of mobile and societal also economic factors has been found by the factor analysis based on the time-variable diffusion models. The models analysis constituted by trend analysis and factors analysis provides the empirical groundwork to understand the diffusion process of mobile phone in China, and the paper made one restudy on the mobile communication market in China through the preceding analyses of four sections.The commentary on the reform of the mobile communication industry as well as the evolution analysis of market structure had indicated the tremendous subversion effects on the market in the article, and optimizing market environment promoted the diffusion of mobile phone also the expansion of market. This deduction has been testified by the factor analysis in the sectionⅣof the article where the promotion effects of market innovation for the proliferation of mobile phone has been estimated with one parameter value about 0.03, which means one much more factor for the diffusion process than others such as the variable PGDP, or the introduction of the digital communication technology. This basic conclusion will make one convincing argumentation for the reform's supporters.In addition, the factor analysis has also promulgated the inverse U process between the reform and the diffusion of mobile phone, and the estimated value of the optimal market structure index is about 2.409, where the index is the distortion of HHI index, that is n index. According the fact that the n index of market in the last 22 years has a alteration between (1,1.182), which means that the market is still favorable for the diffusion of mobile phone. However, the reform to introduce competition urgently awaits to continue for the competition of the market is not full. The function analysis of the market innovation for the diffusion of mobile phone in China gave the choice to think again about the opinion of anti-reform and blind-reform.The tendency and determining factors analyses based on the diffusion models in this paper can be regarded as an application of diffusion analysis in the empirical study of transformation and development of mobile communication market, which has extended application domain of diffusion analysis method, also has provided the new angle of view for the analysis of mobile communication market. The main innovations of this article will be shown as follows:First, this dissertation has made the first complete analysis of market structure of mobile communication market in China form the year 1987 to the year 2008, and with a gain of first complete dataset lasting for 22 years about market structure index, such as the first place operator market controlling force index, HHI index, the H index and n index. The paper also made one complete analysis of the barrier to entry of mobile communication market in the last 22 years based the describing methods raised by Bain.Second, the characteristic analysis of the classical diffusion models based on the trend analysis in the paper has obtained the model inflection point, the extreme value as well as the increasing and the decreasing progressively sectors, which enriched the related mathematics characteristic conclusions of models, and provided the convenience to have a model selection based on the data feature.Third, this article has calculated the feature values of diffusion models, including the time of inflection point, the maximum diffusion rate and the accumulation subscription level of the inflection point, which could be regarded as one new criterion for both model selection and model evaluation.Fourth, the paper has made one reanalysis and redefinition for the parameter b of diffusion models regarded as the sensitivity about diversification of diffusion concerning the change rate of the potential subscriber balance (that is also the change rate of the surplus market capacity),which can also viewed as the elasticity coefficient of diffusion level at time t about the potential subscriber balance and the comparison between the relative change rate of latent subscribers who has not made the adoption and the diffusion speed.Fifth, the paper has made an analysis of market structure with the n index for the first time, which could be regarded as the perfect substitute for the traditional dummy variables including the numbers of MNO, the mode of entry and so on, and a much more ample conclusion has been obtained for this innovation.Sixth, the calculation about the equilibrium n index of the market structure originally in the paper has confirmed one inverse U process between the market reform and diffusion of mobile phone, which can be regarded as one certification for the moderate competition theory.Finally, the domain of diffusion analysis has been extended and the method of industrial analysis has been enriched for the integration of diffusion models and industrial analysis, what also is the characteristic of the paper.