The Diffusion Process Of Mobile Telephony In China

In today's dynamic world, mobile communication has changed the lifestyle of many people. Research of the diffusion process of mobile telephony will be helpful to the effective management and planning. The main goal of this paper is to describe the penetration process of mobile telephony in China for the 20 years,using innovation diffusion theory.Papers obtained the following results and innovations:We firstly revised different alternative specifications for the well-known diffusion models, starting with a simple logistic curve and moving through more flexible formulations like Nelder's model and Flog model..To Estimate the saturation value of penetration, we have explored different ways to state that ceiling, including the Bass proposal to derive it from observed data,and get several alternative values.Then we estimated four diffusion models,Contrastied the test results in the different level of saturation,and finally constructed the most appropriate Nelder model.The innovation of study is resolving the high correlations in the residuals ,using the ARIMA model.The main findings from the diffusion processes as estimated, apart from obtaining the saturation value, is that forecassing the mobile penetration in China...