Empirical Study Of The Impacts Of U.S. Financial Crisis On China's Export Trade

Whether the global economy or a country's domestic economy, it's always inevitable that there is an economic fluctuation or economic cycle, and the economic cycle is always associated with the financial crisis or economic crisis. Financial crisis means deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions, such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land prices, the number of business bankruptcy and financial institutions. If it spreads to whole world, the global financial crisis will occur. The essence of the financial crisis is virtual economic problem. It will more or less have an impact and shock to the real economy. If a greater impact on the real economy occurs, economic output and the economy amount will have a large-scale reduction, resulting in an economic crisis.Since the Second World War, financial crisis or economic crisis have broken out every 4 to 10 years, but the current crisis is not only more serious than before but also essentially different from the current crisis with other financial crises. With regard to the reasons for the U.S. financial crisis, there are already many research achievements, as the overall point of view, the main reasons of the U.S. financial crisis are dereliction of duty of US government and significant loopholes of financial regulatory of the U.S agencies mainly in the following aspects. First, U.S. regulators are too numerous and this may lead to coordination and cooperation problems. The second is that functional supervision of U.S. financial regulator is relatively weak. Then OTC derivative market developed too rapid and supervision is not in that way. Fourth, the financial derivative is a double-edged sword, and the correct use of their price discovery and hedging functions can play the effect of risk aversion. But if excessive speculation, it will bring the risk of financial derivatives.The financial crisis has spread to the world, with the depth of bad impacts being further expanded and an extension to the real economy. Financial Times revealed the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook reported on March 17,2009 that IMF forecasted the world economic growth in 2009 downward to-0.6%, and the economic growth of euro zone would be reduced to-3.2%, U.S. economic growth rate-2.6%, Japan's economic growth rate-5%. As a result of the financial crisis, consuming demand of the United States, Japan, Europe, will have a sharp reduction.The first part of this paper briefly describes the financial crisis, the international transmission theory and the theory of economic globalization, as well as the strategic trade theory. These theories are the starting point and ending point of the idea of this paper, which have the value of overall guidance and direction to this paper.From theory to practice, the second part of the article provides a brief description of China's foreign trade situation. After the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis, impact of the financial crisis on China's export trade concentrates in two areas. On the one hand, the financial crisis make China's export growth rate significantly to be down trend. And on the other hand, under the impact of the financial crisis, consumption demand declines rapidly, which increases our export enterprises and foreign trade friction between enterprises.In the third part, the author expounds how the financial crisis, effect of China's export and the outcome in detail. The effecting mechanism of the financial crisis is mainly in the following four areas, demand transmission, exchange rate transmission, price transmission and trade protectionism. Under the influence of these four mechanisms, China's export trade and international market demand significantly decreased, making China's exports growth rate and the extent of trade surplus decreased.In the fourth part of the article, the author will make use of econometric models to do empirical analysis of the financial crisis impact on the size of China's exports. Taking into account data availability, empirical analysis of this paper will take the monthly income of U.S. residents to replace the economic growth rate as the data to describe the financial crisis, and monthly total export volume of China will be selected as a variable.In The fifth part of the thesis, based on the above study, in the theoretical system framework of scientific concept of development, the author gives some specific strategies from the government and corporate level to improve the situation of China's export trade to deal with the financial crisis. Our government departments should begin to do the following aspects, carrying out loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy, keeping the stability of the RMB exchange rate, taking the initiative to prevent trade protectionism, enhancing internal and external economic and trade policy coordination, flexibility and effectiveness. China's export enterprises should respond to this crisis in the following ways, putting diversification strategy into practice on the basis of controlling risk, accelerating the transformation of the export trade growth mode, adjusting the export structure, founding the domestic market and making brand more and more strong, taking effective measures to avoid receipt risk to enhance their risk control capability.Conclusion part of the article is retrospective summary of the results of this research, and the author also analyzes the shortcomings of this article and the way to go forward.In this paper, the following research methods are mainly used.(A) Methodology of data surveying. In this paper, website, telephone counseling and many other channels are used to obtain a large number of real data.(B) Methods of Literature research. The author reads and thinks through lots of existing research results to strive forward in this field of study.(C) Combination of theory and empirical analysis. There is not only economic theory in this article, but also lots of empirical data of the real economy. So that integration and cross of the theory and demonstration provides a compelling argument to readers.(D) Normative analysis. In this paper, after studying the data of reality, to improve the situation of China's foreign trade the author makes a number of levels of countermeasures and proposals.