| The landscape change is an investigative core in landscape ecology . The landscape change has great influence on society and the sustainable development of economic . In addition , it is an important part of global environment change and a main reason for global climate change . The study on driving factor of the landscape change can greatly help us to understand the essential of the landscape change . Based on it, we can predict the developing trend of the landscape change . The landscape change in regional scale is the important part of global LUCC research as well as its base . The paper regard Yulin area as a typical model of agriculture-pasture interlacing zone in arid and semiarid area having special spatial pattern in physical geography and distinct fragile habitat characteristic and evolutive law in habitation The study on the landscape change ,dynamic transformation and human driving factors of the area will make greatly sense to this area's sustainable development, the study on land use charge on whole nation and global scale .Based on the land-use map of Yulin in 1982 and 1998(scale 1 : 500, 000),using the geography information system program Arc ViewGIS3.2 ,ArcInfo7.1 and the landscape analysis program Fragstats, the spatial pattern was analyzed and the degree of fragmentation was evaluated primarily from the overall landscape properties, the area properties, the perimeter properties, the numbers of patches of landscape elements and so on. The dynamics variation of the landscape in the Yulin prefecture was get on the platform of Arc/Info 7.1 and Excel ; and the forecast on the dynamic variation of landscapes was executed on Visual Basic; and the analysis on the driving factors to the Landscape variation . Later on, making use of the 20 years' social economic data in that area and using the SPSS 10 statistics software, humanities factor especially the population increment was established as the main driving factors. The results are as follows :1 , In Yulin prefecture , the grassland landscapes and the woodland landscape have increased greatly between 1982 and 1998 , while in that period , and Sandy desert decreased greatly. From 1982 to 1998 , the landscape pattern has an obvious fragmentation , the Shannon's diversity index, landscape shape index and fractal dimension index become small.In Yulin prefecture 1982 to 1998, irrigating paddy field, dry land, garden area, woodland, of water, salt soil, sand landlord converted into grassland; The irrigable land and grassland converted into dry land. The increment of the resident ground comes from the dry land primarily.It is indicated that human activities has enhanced , the governmental compulsive execution policy of returning farmland to woodland (grass) and prevention of desertification have developed the very big function, landscape construction and ecosystem functions of whole region get the excellent turning with improvement.2 The Markov forecasting show that , under the condition of the same disturbs between 1982 and 1998 , Water, sand land and Gobi desert reduce, and other types all increase year by year. When the variety of the landscape attains the time of the opposite and stable appearance, garden area, woodland, resident land slightly contain increment. Therefore, the current policy in that area is more reasonable.3, The landscape changes of driving factors: pointing out the human activities, policy factor and economic lever's function is the most driving factors of landscape variety. At the same time, using the main composition analysis and linear regression analysis ,it is established that human activities is the most driving factors. |
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