| The Xilin Gol region in Inner Mongolia is one of the three highest regions in which the pastoral snow disaster happens. Because the vast grasslands the large amount of livestock and the high proportion of husbandry, the snow disaster results in serious economic loss. Therefore, acquiring timely and accurate information about snow extent to make decision to prevent disaster is very meaningful. Based on ground meteorological data and literature records, analysis the relation between meteorological factors and disasters, then design the risk model and put it into application. Main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) According to the study area for many years of meteorological statistics and disaster data collation, analysis the disasters based on the description of the pastoral disasters from 1960 to 2000. analysis the disaster in accordance with the corresponding period of snow depth, snow cover duration and mean temperature time series base on Grey relational analysis, Concluded that the relationship between meteorological factors and disaster are ordered as snow depth, snow cover time and average temperature.(2) According to the formation mechanism of snow and natural disasters, system theory, Designed risk assessment model of snow based on various factors, including risk and vulnerability. In the model hazard rank is calculated based on meteorological factors, vulnerability is from reference, the final risk rank is calculated by combination of the hazard and vulnerability.(3)put the model into Application base on the disaster Period acquiring from historical disaster material from 1990 to 2000. The results is in accordance with the actual disaster to same extent and this model is able to assess the snow disaster To some extent.The model in this article is an attempt to get information about snow disaster in pastoral areas and the research has some reference value to the departments about snow disaster prevention... |
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