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The Research On Quantitative Risk Assessment Method Based On Grey Theory In Oil And Gas Pipelines

Posted on:2008-06-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:D M QiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2121360212490249Subject:Chemical Process Equipment
Abstract/Summary:
The pipeline safety situation is increasingly outstanding with long-distance oil and gas pipelines development. The key is to improve the prediction ability in accident to realize safe and efficient transportation of gas and oil. Oil and gas pipeline system of risk evaluation of technical research is to improve oil and gas project in the various sectors of reliability, to improve the predictive ability of accident and the potential areas, and to minimize the occurrence of accidents caused by the loss, casualties and damage to the environment. Therefore, the on-duty pressure pipeline system for risk assessment and monitoring, and then the application of risk management expertise in risk management, for the safe operation of pipelines is of great significance.This paper analyzes components of risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines and the guidelines of risk assessment, defines the related concepts of pipeline risk assessment. The paper also builds a model of quantitative risk assessment system, components and process of risk analysis.Gray correlation of gray theory is used to analyze quantitative risk analysis of oil and gas pipelines, and to study various factors in the accident of pipeline accidents. Through ranking risk of the accident and hierarchical of risk factors, managers could know various risk factors relative weights more precisely. As a result, it offers a research idea for dealing with accidents factors in the pipeline system of weights.From pipeline accident fault tree composed by accident factors, we can make a conclusion that accident fault tree is also a hierarchical structure. So Gray correlation analysis is applied in Pipeline Accident Factors Fault Tree Analysis, which offers another method of as long pipeline accident factors quantitative risk analysis provides an alternative method of accidents factors in the pipeline system of weights.Referring to the technical information, foreign oil and gas pipeline risk management background, application, effect and risk assessment technique was recalled. China's oil and gas pipeline risk management technique status was reviewed. At the same time, the development trend of oil and gas pipelines on the world, development trend and key technology of oil and gas pipeline risk management in our country was summarized. And countermeasures should be made out in our country. Pipelines risk assessment technology of the countermeasures was proposed.
Keywords/Search Tags:oil and gas pipelines, risk analysis, accident, weight, Quantitative risk assessment, grey-theory, Grey relational degree
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