Technological Approaches And Uncertainty Analysis Of Industrial Water Pollutant Control

Total quantity control of industrial major water pollutants emission is one of the two binding targets of China’s environmental protection objectives. Technological approaches and uncertainties of pollutants emission reduction affect the achievement of discharge target. This research analyzed the total quantity control, uncertainties of water pollutant emissions, transfer between environmental goals under multiple constraints and the establishment of environmental standards based on industry technology system simulation. An integrated assessment model of industrial water pollutant control and technology policy (IWPCTP) was developed based on the simulation of technological change, uncertainty analysis and multi-constraints technological optimization. The IWPCTP model is composed of six major modules:system simulation, data base, scenario setting, environmental impact analysis, technology selection and uncertainty analysis. Paper industry was taken as an example to estimate the reduction potential of wastewater and main pollutants (COD and ammonia), identify the main factors affecting the potential of emission reduction, analysis the uncertainty of pollution reduction and technology policy under synergic control by bottom-up modeling the technology system from raw materials, process, products, scale of production and technologies.Results showed that:(1) emission reduction potentials of waste water, COD and ammonia will be0.6billion t,0.37million t and3000t respectively in2015, overfulfil the target in the12th five-year plan. And emission reduction potentials of waste water, COD and ammonia will be1.46billion t,0.54million t and5800t respectively in2020. Strengthen the end-treatment will be the main approach to reduce of pollutants and waste water. Accelerating structure adjustment will be an important approach in2015-2020.(2) Application of pollutants emission reduction technologies can lower the emission levels effectively, especially the popularization of cleaner production technologies can make the pollution levels of all kinds of products reach domestic or international advanced level in2015and2020.(3) The emission reduction technologies can be divided into two categories, one can increase energy consumption when reduce emissions including modified continuous cooking, elemental chlorine free and totally effluent free technologies, the other category can reduce emissions and energy demand at the same time like wood dry preparation and so on.(4) The recommend technologies are efficient pulp washing, dry and wet preparation/continuous cooking, medium and high consistency pulping, improved batch cooking, wood dry preparation, full closed screening, alkali recovery of black liquor, oxygen delignification and enzymatic deinking technologies.(5) Identified the sensitive parameters of influencing pollutants emissions in output of products, structures, cleaner production technologies and end-treatment technologies.