Research And Application Of An Approach For Marine Oil Spill Risk Classification And Zonation

With the sustained growth of development speed and scale of Chinese offshore oil exploration, marine oil spill accidents frequently occurred, and a lot of petroleum hydrocarbons entered the sea through various ways. It is not only a waste of energy, more seriously, also brought immeasurable destruction and loss to the marine environment, human health and socio-economic development. Therefore, carrying out the study of marine oil spill risk classification and zonation has important theoretical significance and practical value, which can remote the construction of study area oil spill pollution emergency capacity and reduce the loss of accidents pollution and hazards to the surrounding environment.The thesis first introduced the risk sources identification and risk terms analysis of the entire offshore oil storage and production platform system. And it was summarized that there are four main sources of marine oil spill accidents, which are oil platforms, shipping, oil storage tanks and pipeline. Meanwhile based on the history data of marine oil spill accidents, the paper comprehensive analysis the oil spill risk factors, which are facilities and equipment, natural environment, navigation environment and human factors.Then based on the analysis of the oil spill factors and applied the definition of risk as the theoretical support, which is " R= P × C "(R, P, C represent the risk, the probability and consequences), the paper established a comprehensive model of oil spill risk classification and zonation through adopting mathematical statistics and geographical information technology. The model not only contained the scale of distribution of four marine oil spill risk sources which are oil platforms, shipping, oil storage tanks and pipeline, also took into account the history cases of oil spill and marine sensitive targets. The model method can be defined as "Rk=Pk×Ck×Sk"(Pk、Ck、 Sk represent the synthetic risk probability index, the synthetic pollution index of oil spill and the synthetic sensitivity coefficient).And the calculated results will be showed intuitively and visually by the GIS platform.At last, combined with the traffic management situation, natural conditions and environment sensitive resource of Dalian water, the paper conducted a comprehensive risk evaluation and classification and zonation application of Dalian water as case study. In this study, the synthetic risk probability index was calculated which based on accident possibility index and hazard index of risk source. The comprehensive evaluation model was established which based on the synthetic risk probability index, the synthetic pollution index of oil spill and the synthetic sensitivity coefficient. Then the synthetic risk value of oil spill was calculated through the model. Last the risk value was applied to make a classification and zonation. The results showed that "R<4" is defined as low-risk area, "4≤R<10" as lower-risk area, "10≤R<20" as medium-risk area, "20≤R<30" as higher-risk area, "R≥30" as high-risk area. The subdivision results are consistent with the risk situation of oil spill of Dalian waters, and it can provide the decision-making basis for marine oil spill risk management.