Study On Quantitative Assessment Method For Oil Spill Risk Of Submarine Pipelines

Submarine pipelines connect the upstream and downstream of the development of offshore oilfields and are important infrastructures for offshore oilfield production.The safety of subsea pipelines is directly related to the entire offshore oilfield.With the continuous increase of energy demand in our country and the continuous development of offshore oil and gas resources,the scale of submarine pipelines will be expanded day by day.Under such circumstances,ensuring the safe and efficient transportation of seabed oil and gas pipelines is a difficult task facing the offshore oil industry.Studying the risk assessment technology of submarine pipelines is of great significance for improving the safety management of seabed oil and gas pipelines.In this paper,the causes of failure of submarine pipelines and the consequences of oil spills are evaluated.Based on the research of other scholars,a model of submarine pipelines risk assessment based on Bow-tie model is proposed.Firstly,the Bow-tie model was used to qualitatively identify the risk factors of oil spill accidents in submarine pipelines,clarify the mechanism of action between all levels of events and get the combination of oil spill results according to the state of emergency measures.The Bow-tie model is mapped to the Bayesian network,and the prior probability of the basic events is calculated by means of questionnaires and fuzzy mathematics.The probability of the submarine pipeline oil spill accident and its result combination is predicted.The oil spill aperture Size,estimate oil spill based on the knowledge of fluid mechanics,and evaluate the risk of oil spill on the seabed by designing quantitative evaluation indexes.Finally,taking the C oilfield as an example,the risk of oil spill on the submarine pipeline is evaluated from probability and oil spill volume.The evaluation results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.The study found that the proposed model can predict the probability of oil spill and possible oil spill.The probability of oil spill in C oil pipeline is 0.010868214,the possible oil spill is 2.65 tons and the risk level is class 2.The model proposed in this paper can be used according to Posterior probability diagnosis of the accident,quickly find the source of oil spills.The submarine pipeline quantitative risk assessment model is feasible and it works well in C oilfield risk assessment.