The Emission Inventory Prediction Of SO₂、NO_x In China Based On Scenario Analysis

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economic development had made remarkable achievements in the world, but economic and social development would brought a lot of energy consumption inevitably, coupled with unreasonable structure of primary energy, extensive energy consumption had brought many environmental problems, particularly the air pollution that there was most intimate relationship with us,affected our quality of life and health.Pollution gross control and total emission control plan played a crucial role in making scientific and rational planning pollutant reduction policies and promoting sustainable development, also was working emphasis of all levels of government and important means of protect environmental. Accurately predicted the amount of pollutants can provide scientific support for environmental management.In the method of predict the total pollutants, compared to traditional forecasting methods, the scenario analysis get rid of the limitations of traditional forecasting methods which based on historical data, it full considered the possibility of changes of the external environment and the impact on research topics brought by changes,increased interpretation skills of predicted results for a variety of trends that may occur in reality.The emission inventory of SO2 and NOx of different scenarios of china in 2015 and 2020 were established based on fuel consumption data and it’s corresponding emission factors, the fuel consumption data were predicted by sectors analysis and the new emission factors due to more strict pollution control measures were also used. The result shows that: In the basis scenario, policy scenario and strengthen policy scenario, the emission of SO2 and NOx in 2015 and 2020 decreased in turn;In case study basis scenario, the emission of SO2 and NOx declined by 4.72 and 2.56 million tons respectively owing to the pollution control measures were strengthened; It’s uneven allocation of SO2 and NOx emission from sectors,in which thermal power, industry and heating were main sources of SO2 and NOx emission, and the combined contribution to SO2 emission was about 90% and to NOx emission was about 60%, is the key sector of pollution control.