The Comprehensive Research Of Energy Consumption And CO₂ Emission In Hubei Province

Along with the global warming issue getting more and more serious, China faces a greater pressure on energy consumption and environmental problems. As one of the oldest industrial basis of China, Hubei is also an important economically developed province in central China. After a few years of extensive type of industrial development, industry development of Hubei province now gets to the bottleneck: first, total available resources and per-capita resources are both at a critical level; second, environmental pollution keep aggregating; third, facing tremendous environmental loading pressure. So it is emergency to research the energy consumption and CO₂ emission issues of Hubei province.The research framework of this paper can be summarized as: First of all, In order to allocate the general situation of Hubei province, nine areas (province or city) are under consideration: Beijing, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and Guangdong. Their CO₂ emission, per unit of GDP CO₂ emission and per unit of energy consumption CO₂ emission from 1990 to 2007 are estimated; Then, 15 years during 1990 and 2005 are separated into three periods, decomposition analysis is used to find out which factors are the most important ones to change the per capital CO₂ emission of the nine areas; After that, industrial energy consumption of Hubei province is cut apart into several sections and four energy types, LMDI decomposition analysis is used to consider which factors are the primary causes to every sections'emission change during 1999 and 2007; At last, CO₂ emission prediction of Hubei province in 2020, 2035 and 2050 are done based on input-output analysis and scenario approach.Conclusion shows that: general CO₂ emission situation of Hubei province is on medium level contrasted with other eight areas, a majority of CO₂ emission is from second industry: energy supply section, petrochemical industry section, textile and other light industries section and metallurgical industry section are the biggest emission sections, and the most main factors are industrial scale effect, energy intensity effect and industrial structure effect. According to the predicting outcomes in Hubei province, the energy-saving scenario and the low-carbon scenario can both lowering the primary energy consumption and CO₂ emission in the year of 2020, 2035 and 2050 effectively. As a result, Shifting the industrial structure, saving energy from industrial process, constructing energy-efficient constructions, promoting administration capacity of energy conservation and proposing energy-saving to the public are helpful to the Energy saving and emission reduction work of Hubei province in the future.