Cge Model In The National Strategy Of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis

Several of the studies indicate that total emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in China might exceed that of the U.S. in 2020. Thus, the quantity of GHGs emission in China will be the largest in the world at that time. In the future, China will be confronted with more serious pressure in international negotiation of global climate change and GHGs reduction. Therefore, it is necessary for Chinese government to set down a comprehensive national strategy to guide the interior and foreign policies related to global GHGs reduction.Due to the advantages of the CGE model in policy simulation and analysis, and to the core position of the economic factors in global climate change and GHGs reduction, CGE model has been a mainstream method in analyzing this problem. As an attempt to apply CGE model to the research of Chinese national strategy of global climate change and GHGs reduction, this paper manages to analyze the integral and structural impacts of carbon tax on Chinese economy, to study the transmission mechanism of policies on emission reduction, and to identify the complete concept of cost of emission reduction with our HE model. This paper also evaluates China's emission reduction under certain economic-technical -energy-environmental conditions.According to the transitional character of Chinese economy, the author argues that the structural impacts of the emission reduction policies on the economy will be more important than those in western economies. The analysis on the structural impacts should be more emphasized than on the aggregate variables such as GDP, which usually lead to the loss of information.