Construction Land Demand Forecasting And Urban Spatial Expansion

Coming the new century, the economy and society had developed healthily and rapidly. Urbanization and Industrialization cause urban space to promote, the scale of the construction land is increasing. The original land-use master plan(1997-2010) was not adapted to the rapid development of economics and society now.In the current, with the development and expansion of urban areas, controlling the scale of construction land has become a hot area of academic study. In this paper, the author implant the latest land-use master plan revision and the monographic study of the construction land demand forecast. Based on the basis of technology and theory which related to China and foreign countries, author use land-use date and date of economic and social of Kunming City from 1996 to 2005. Simultaneously, through the land-use structure, land-use information entropy and expanding land-use index of the main city of Kunming, the author analyse the construction of land-use structure and spatial expansion. Then, author build a two-factor forecasting model and gray GM (1,1) prediction model to predict the demand of construction land of the main city of Kunming in 2015 and 2020.The paper use technology and theory of GIS, Smart Growth to analyze potential for expansion of construction land and space to expand about the layout and direction in the main urban areas.Study shows that the land-use structure of the main city of Kunming has been gradually developed to diversity and a balance. In Panlong District and Guandu District, the construction of land-use structure is diversity, which has a higher degree of equalization than Wuhua District and Xishan District. From 1996 to 2005, expansion of the main urban construction land include residential land, commercial land and industrial land. The gradual expansion of construction land from some certain types to balanced development. The future development of the main urban areas will be limited by the terrain, the topography and other conditions, so there are less areas to develop, it needs to build satellite towns near the main city areas, and through the City Bus Rapid Transit system to connect the main city and the satellite towns.Conclusion of the paper agree with the Spatial Development Planning of Kunming, and it's useful for the overall land use planning and city development.