The Research On Project Cost Forecast Model Based On Gst

The cost of a project for quick and accurate forecasts,to the owners,the owners commissioned by the advisory bodies,as well as tender,are a vital work.In every stage of construction,the owners of the proposed works need to predict all the expected price,which established basic price,bid evaluation and calibration;For bidders, the building cost of projects forecast is success or failure of the tender decision and in the implementation of the project can profit in the key.Traditional forecasting methods and prediction models there are many,but these methods to some extent on the existence of limitations and not comprehensive,can not fully meet the needs of project cost projections.If qualitative forecasting methods,it is gathered a great deal of information and visual materials on the basis of further expert analysis and forecasting.In actual projects,materials prices it is difficult to predict accurately.Information on the history of the collection,at this stage,the majority of our construction companies have not set up their own information base,even though there are also not perfect or update the speed is too slow to less than full information sharing,information exchange purposes.In the history of incomplete data,also requested faster more accurate the estimated project cost of circumstances,the use of Grey System Theory (GST) to predict the construction cost calculation is more appropriate. Grey System Theory is to study the characteristics of "small sample","poor information" the uncertainty question.The basic criteria for a "limited information space" and "least information".At present, the use of grey system theory research project cost less predictable,only the total project cost to GM(1,1) forecast a single series, and the total project cost from a few constitute a single series prediction is not comprehensive enough,if used Grey Theory of GM(1, N) is more appropriate to predict.GM(1, N) model will be a system to identify factors of the dynamic relationship,understand the whole system changes and changes in the development of links,it is a network of integrated research,,is formed by a number of variables Grey differential equations,Predicted the development of a number of variables change. Project cost with a real situation,the establishment of project cost GM (1, N) forecast models and examples of the works in the use of the test the accuracy of forecasting model meet the requirement,completed a forecast of purpose,has certain application value.