Distributed Generation System Spot Price Forecasting Gray Model

Along with the rapid development of society and the rising living standard of the people, the demand for power is increasing, with big units, big power, high voltage of the main characters of the traditional mass grid that disadvantages are increasingly significant. In recent years, the worldwide happened several large area blackouts, which fully exposed the vulnerability of the traditional big power grid. As the earth resource exhausting and people strengthening of environmental protection consciousness, also the worldwide electricity market reform, which have prompted introducing a competitive mechanism in the electric power industry,in order to reduce production and marketing costs of electricity, realize the optimization of resource allocation. A series of reforms of electric power industry that prompted the birth and development of distributed power generation technology, and make it become the key and the hotspot in the power system research. The emergence of the distributed power generation system, make the original structure of the power market that have taken place great changes. More reflects the basic principle that Spot price as the core index of reflecting operating status of power market,market maturity and evaluation market competition efficiency.First of all, this paper systematically analysis the Spot price model, on account of discussing advantages and disadvantages of several kinds of electricity price forecasting method that more popular at home and abroad, mainly to put forward the Grey forecasting model of Spot price.Then, detailedly described the power supply network economic characteristics of the distributed power generation system. Because of the electric power market Spot price forecasting research of the distributed power generation system is in the initial stage, more mature prediction system of Spot price hasn't formed. This paper comprehensive analysis the similarities and differences between the electric power market of the distributed power generation system and the original one, then put forward the Spot price forecasting research of the distributed power generation system based on the Grey forecasting model, and draw some useful conclusions. This paper used a simplified small distribution network that including of the distributed power generation system as an example to modeling and simulation, through the accurate prediction of the Spot price, proving the feasibility and correctness of this method.