Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Forecast Parameter Model System To Study

A family equations for estimating aircraft Life Cycle Cost (ALCC) is made in this thesis. The main work in this research is. (1) making all models fit into nation; (2) expanding the range of estimation and (3) improving estimation precision. Hence, the research of this thesis are those need to and undeveloped research at ALCC in nation.Explanatory varaiable seeking: Explanatory varaiable seeking is based on the analysis of cost drivers. The influence of First Fight-Time on cost estimating is specially discussed. And also expounding that the first-fight-time can give explanation to the advanced techniques, The estimating ranges of First-Fight-time in ALCC estimating are expanded. The Type-changed Index and Type-difference are selected as dummy variables. It has discussed mearsursion of Type-changed Index, and three criterions and three methods to set models including the dummy variable are got.Data Analysis. It is important to apply influence analysis, computing of correlation-conefficient and charactrestic value of the design matrix and Ridge Regression to set models. The quality of model is developed.Model Seeking. The method ELECTEE is applied to model optimum seeking. Sets of model quality and their weighted conefficint are determined.Risk Analysis. The causes of estimating risk and its analysis methos are discussed in this thesis. A curve of cost-probability is got.Computerization To selecting samples and expantory varaiables automaticly the program for F-test and t-test is programmed.I devote myself to ALCC base research and applied research in the thesis. It has some reference values in the developing national LCC analysis.