Resources Allocation Effect Evaluation Index System And Model

The distribution effectiveness assessment of water resources is a process in direction of the persistence development theory in which all optimally predicted distribution schemes are analyzed ,all synthesis benefit of society,economy,ecology,environment created by various schemes are calculated, the best scheme is elected and used to guide experience on the basis of applying the system analysis theory and utility theory in the optimal distribution of water resources for a region. The assessment index system and model of water resources distribution effectiveness are investigated in this essay pointed to the existed problems of present state in domestic and abroad.The concrete content is as following:(1) On the basis of the systematically consulting the domestic and abroad literatures,the shortage of research presently and the aftertime study direction are pointed out from the research content , index system and assessment model of water resources distribution assessment.(2) The basic knowledge such as the classification , the established basic principle etc of the index sign system, which is necessary to build index system,are analyzed systematically ,and parallel type index which is distributed to modular system is adopted;departed from the conception of the water resources distribution effectiveness assessment, the typical attribute containing natural attribute, social attribute, economy attribute, ecology attribute of water resources system are analyzed combined with the distribution mechanics and regulation and control measures of water resources optimal distribution ,from the point of the connection of the water resources with the society, economy, ecology, environment, referenced with other characteristic index, the index system of water resources distribution effectiveness for a region included four subsystem typical index are established;the index system are divided into three types as the index calculated directly, the index calculated indirectly, qualitative index, and the corresponding calculating method is studied initially.(3)Set out from the angle of large-scale system and multiple objective,multi-attribute utility theory is analyzed, and the utility function of water resources distribution schemes assessment is proved to be existing according to the relative theory of utility function, which provide the foundation of utility function with theory basis;the local minimization problem existed in the process of the Back Propagation (shortened by BP) algorithm is analyzed after described the process mechanics of the artificial neural networks,introducing the Particle Swarm Optimizer(shortened by PSO) algorithm in BP networks and making use of PSO to optimize the initial connected threshold value of BP, which let the threshold value locate inthe range of global optimization directly in BP and increase the BP networks' ability of global optimization;this model can avoid effectively local minimization problem ,which is proved by the calculation and analysis of the calculated example;combined the ideal point technique in multi-attribute decision with the training mechanics in the BP network ,the implied utility function is built between the index system and its assessment utility, the assessment model of water resources distribution effectiveness is built ,the typical parameter of the network construction are studied ,which provide the election of the water resources optimal distribution schemes with effective path.(4)Pointed to the reality of water resources system in An Yang City, on the basis of the comprehensive assessments protection and planning of water resources,the index system of water resources distribution effectiveness assessment in An Yang City is established and quantified;the assessment results of water resources distribution effectiveness on condition of 50 % , 75 % rainfall guaranteed rate and water demand level in 2010 s 2020 in An Yang City are obtained by program after analyzed the calculated parameter of proved BP algorithm, and the best scheme is recommended. So the index system and the assessment model of the water resources distribution effectiveness built in this essay is effective and feasible.