| This thesis takes evaluation of combat effectiveness of the medium range air-to-air missile weapon system as a research object. After analyzing, studying and summarizing the existing achievements of missile weapon system effectiveness evaluation home and abroad, this thesis mainly studies the kill probability and attack area of the medium range air-to-air missile, and gives its attack area, no-escape area and kill probability distribution. The main contributions of this thesis are summarized as follows:1. The concepts, measure standards, evaluation methods and steps of missile weapon system are expounded, and two effectiveness evaluation models are established.2. Several problems about kill probability of one-missile to one-target are researched. Including distributions of guidance deviation, characteristics of warhead and fuze, target vulnerability, dynamic lethal area of warhead, effective starting area of warhead, and target coordinate kill law.3. The thesis analyzes every factor which affects the boundary of the attack area, establishes the mathematical models for calculating attack area, including kinematics model of missile, four expedient models of target, relative motion between missile and target, control and guidance models of missile. According to the mathematical models, a simulation is carried out for calculating concrete attack areas, and the no-escape area is determined base on attack areas of four expedient models of target, then the factors which affect the no-escape area are analyzed.4. In consideration of kill probability and effectiveness of missile weapon system, the thesis researches on kill probability curve and effectiveness curve in attack area. The method for obtaining the kill probability curve is described in detail, then the concrete kill probability distribution based on above kill probability of one-missile is given and analyzed.The results of this thesis can be used in the evaluation and assessment of missile weapon system, and its type selection. |
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