Fault Model Of Electrical Equipment And Maintenance Of Point Forecast

The equipment's failure is an primary factor to equipment's natural run, but the description or diagnosis in the traditional production progress is always based on experience or few calculation, this goes against equipment's natural run and the control of the cost of production.So,it has important significance to do quantificational description of equipment's state,failure and failure rate.Many useful distributions is detailed summarized in this thesis that have extensive application in the description of equipment's failure and the equipment's life.Such as, Exponential distribution,weibull distribution and poisson distribution.Many other aspects are also summarized such as,the method of equipment's repair, the kind of equipment's failure, the stage of equipment's failure,the choice of repair method in this thesis.The failure rate is detailed summarized in this thesis which is the extreme most important concept to analyse equipment's state, find the formula of failure rate, and then calculate the equipment's failure rate whose life curve obey every kind of distribution.The parameters'significance in the curve were explained, the sufficiency statistical factor were also used.Many methods were used to determinate the storage of device which provide quantitative method to equipment's natural run.The question is also discussed that whether the equipments that have the same failure rate function have the same state function.The prediction of the failure time is the most important aspect in equipment's maintain.So, many methods are detailed summarized in this thesis,such as, statistical method, Marquardt method.Time series are seldom used in confirming repair time.So, the prediction of maintain time used time series is detailed summarized and every step of time series forecast is detailed introduced.