Forest Fire Risk Prediction Models Based On Gis And Rs

Forest fire is forestry calamity in for the social, environmental influence of economic growth scope the most broad and a kind of destructive biggest natural calamity, forest fire occur have its certainty, there is also its burst. How to implement the forest fireproof purpose of " with prevention mainly with " better need to make the forest forecast work of fire insurance urgently.This paper is the partial content and project name of the Guangzhou city significant project of science and technology that presided over by tutor: Guangzhou city forest fireproof information system (the 20,020,197 of serial number ), project capital: 200.660000 Yuan. During research, investigating and collecting plenty of property data and space data and having carried out the research development of near 3 years work, study accomplishment in order to be available for occupancy.Paper have summarized the domestic and international forest forecast research present situation of fire insurance with develop tendency. Is taking systematic scientific, forest fiery scientific and informatics theory as guidance , utilize the geography information systematic technology of remote sensing, global positioning system (GPS) and computer technical and mathematics method, for the Guangzhou city forest forecast of fire insurance problem is as follows research:(1 ) utilize the TM image via digital image handling, have carried out the forest factor space data collection of fire insurance and the appraisement of integration analysis , draw up can burn thing type grade table and the forest grade analysis table of fire insurance. Classify with natural property storehouse and the image overlay in GIS space database, then assemble with development kind of method, for Guangzhou, city has carried out the forest partition of fire insurance, and have drawn 1: the Guangzhou city forest partition picture of fire insurance of fifty thousands.( 2 ) use Guangzhou city 1997 ?the weather information of fire insurance of 2001 years, each season of combination is artificial to use fiery law as well as the forest partition result of fire insurance, refer to the nation-wide forest method of fire insurance of weather forecast, have developed Guangzhou city 1 ?the forest system of fire insurance of weather forecast in 2 days, and the forest weather forecast of fire insurance comes using the forest systematic voluntarily generation Guangzhou city forest weather grade distribution picture of fire insurance of weather forecast of fire insurance, with this as basis to issue each district( county and city) short period of Guangzhou city.( 3 ) in the forest course of fire insurance of weather forecast in, is the weather partition of fire insurance 5 grades, and the reference Guangzhou city weather information and forest fire in forest fireproof issue of near 3 years occur characteristic , get the frequency that the different levels grade day number of fire insurance arises , 3 levels take 50% around, 2,4 levels take 20% each around, 1, 5 levels are around 5%. And forest fire occurs probability, 1 ~ 2 levels in 5% below, around 3 level 15%s 4 level 30%s, 5 level 50%s more than.( 4 ) basis the partition of fire insurance and the weather condition of fire insurance, so as Microsoft Visual C + + 6.0 is programming tool, control using Map Object that offers byAmerican ESRI company in ArcGIS8. the foundation that 3 geography information systems develop platform and ORACLE database on make corresponding develop twice, and will foresee that result offers with graph and digital form to commander.( 5 ) check the in last 3 years Guangzhou forest historical record of fire insurance of each district county, through comparing the forest fire in total frequency and forecast issue that forest fire occurs , occur frequency , get corresponding newspaper to allow rate. Since melting , the forecast newspaper of fire insurance of city allows rate, spend the forecast newspaper of fire insurance of district for 81% to allow rate for 85%, the forecast newspaper of fire insurance of white clou...