Agrometeorological Yield Forecasts In The Heilongjiang Province Of Dry Crops And Systems Development

Heilongjiang province is a big agricultural province, which is one of important areas to produce grain in our country, and planting area of dry land crop is so wide that its yield account for crop output in Heilongjiang province, so a study on yield forecast is very important for agriculture development. Crop growth are greatly affected by climate, so do crop yield, according to the analysis on heat index of maize, this paper analyzes that heat effects on varieties growth and maturity of maize, which explains that climate is a main factor for crop growth. Focusing on the relationship between crop growth and climatic factors including temperature and water condition, and investigating the growth curve of crop dry matter, based on it ,This paper analyzes the relationship between climatic factors and the accumulated quantity of crop dry matter which is related to climatic yield directly. Therefore, According to the model of the accumulated dry matter, the forecast model for climatic yield of crop is founded, by using meteorological data of forecasting year and compared year, crop yield of forecasting year is predicted after we obtain yield of compared year. Programmed in terms of VB₆.0 and supported by Windows98, yield forecasting system is developed for agricultural management in Heilongjiang Province, which consists largely of the forecast model to accomplish yield forecasting operation of main dry land crop and calculates yield of crop in Heilongjiang province. It can hopefully provide support for agricultural management and policy-making, and be helpful for rational adjustment of farming structure and predicting crop yield in Heilongjiang province.