| As the human activity has more effect on environment, the problem of population, resources and environment becomes more serious, and the change of land use and land cover caused by that is being given more attention. With a larger population relative to its land area in Shandong Province, the contradiction between population and land area is more urgently to be dissolved, and has become the bottle neck of economic development. Therefore take the example of Qingdao, adopt the technology of remote sensing, geographical information system and global position system, employ mathematics models to study its changes of land use and land cover and make an analysis on the human driving forces which have formed the present pattern of land use and land cover and caused the pattern changes of land use and land cover. The aim of the study above is to help people understand and deal with the relation between economic development and tillable land protection, thus harmonize the tillable land protection with economic development and population development in the future. The main contents are as follows.1. Some mathematic models are used to research the spatio-temporal change of land use and land cover from 1995 to 2000 in Qingdao , such as land use dynamic degree model, land use degree spatio-temporal evolution model and land use type transferring matrix model. By using landsat TM remote sensing images in 1995, 1998 and 2000 and traditional interpretation method, precisely acquire the land use information from the remote sensing images and build the cartographic data base system of land use. The functions of G1S are elaborated, such as managing spatial data and attribute data, spatial analyzing and outputting ultimate maps. By analyzing land use maps, combining statistic materials, connect the spatial data and attribute data and build dynamic change data base of land use. Traditionally, the researches of land use generally focus on the total quantitative change of all kinds of land. In this paper the transferring matrix model can indicate the interactive transfer relation. As a result of knowing the relation of the interactive transfer, we can regulate the best ratio of all kinds of land according to the social, economical and environmental development demands. Besides, some landscape indexes, such as landscape diversity index, dominant index, evenness index and fragment index, have been chosen to analyze the landscape pattern and its evolution progress of the land use. The results of the research show that the area of grass land, tillable land, unused land andwaters has been decreased; the area of forests, residential land, industrial land and traffic land has increased, and the main cause of the decrease of tillable land is the increase of the residential land, industrial land and traffic land. The fraction indexes of tillable land, residential land, industrial land and traffic land and forests have increased, but the isolation indexes decreased, showing the tendency of the three types of land use is from dispersing to concentrating, and that the increase of fraction index of grass land proves that human activities are influencing more on it;2. The research of driving forces on the land use pattern and the pattern changes of Qingdao.By means of the social economic statistical software-STATISTICA, use its canonical model and choose some variants related to nature and economics to pursue the driving forces that formed the present pattern of land use and land cover and resulted in the change of land use and land cover. The results indicate that it is mainly the economic development that caused the change of land use and land cover;3. Prediction of the land use structure of Qingdao. Apply the Markov chain model to predictthe coming ten years' land use structure. The prediction shows that the ratio of tillableland is gradually decreasing, and that that of the residential land, industrial land andtraffic land is increasing. The results above coincide with the economic developmentdemands. |
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