Nearly 15 Years Guyuan County Of Cultivated Land Change Driving Forces In Sustainable Land Use Study

The study of driving force is one of the targets of land use and cover change (LUCC).It is expected that we will know the cause and process of LUCC though the study of driving force.Under the paradigm of press-state-response(PSR),the fist step is the study of driving force.The model method is used in large scale,meanwhile,participate investigation is used in small scale.A way which can used in all scale can not be found.This maybe because of the complexity in multi-scales.So,we want to explore the relationship between driving forces and LUCC.Not only it is the route of comprehending what and how makes the land cover change,but it is also the way integrate the methods in the study of scales.Guyuan county,which is fragile in environment,locates in the middle of farming-pastoral area in northern china.It selected as representative region,because of two reasons.One reason is that it is a typical case;the other is that it plays an important role in the safety of Beijing and Tianjin.We used multi-linear regression and path analysis to study the causes of change of arable land in Guyuan county.the result shows that the path analysis is better than multi-linear regression.Base on the results of study of driving force and surveying in Guyuan county,we devided the whole county into four parts and given directions of sustainable land use.