An Analysis Of Price Conductive Relationship Between Ppi And Cpi

CPI and PPI are key economic indicators published on the regular monthly press conference by the State Department, Price stability is one of the objectives of macroeconomic development, Price index has been important parameter that has an impact on capital markets, foreign exchange marker, futures markets and other economic areas;CPI and PPI are the important basis in Government formulating monetary policy and economic planning; CPI and PPI also bring an increasingly important impact on the lives and investment of ordinary people. Understanding of the price transmission process clearly, mastering the law of the price transmission have great significance to economic regulation, risk control and economic decision-making.Hundred years of financial crisis brought great impact to the real economy of our country. Price volatility frequently is a real problem in the economic development of our country, how to out of the shadow of the global financial crisis, achieve price stability, sound economic development is a priority task.In this paper, a variety of modern econometric methods were used to do empirical analysis to the relationship between PPI and CPI in our country, studying the strong correlation between PPI and CPI by a linear regression model;the causal relationship and long-term equilibrium contact between PPI and CPI were proved by granger causality test and co-integration test;by the establishment of VAR model and impulse response analysis PPI and CPI exists a lag impact, however, the VEC model reflected both sides'corresponding contact in the short and long term; juxtaposing the PPI and CPI conductivity relationship between before and after the financial crisis in China, we found that the financial crisis had a strong impact to the domestic price transmission; on the basis of introducing RPI, empirical study the status of the price transmission mechanism, the results showed that the price transmission was smooth in China's overall economy. The paper is divided into 8 parts:"Introduction" section mainly introduces the research background and significance, the main research contents and methods, research of the price conduction of PPI and CPI at home and abroad;In the first chapter, an overview of relevant theory on the definition of PPI and CPI, statistical structural features are discussed in detail, and also the content, type and influencing factors of the price of transmission.The ChapterⅡanalyses PPI,CPI historical volatility and status of China on the basis of the theoretical analysis, and illustrates the correlation through the establishment of measuring linear model.The ChapterⅢdoes unit root test and show that each sequence is a sequence of first-order single on the basis of the monthly adjusted data of PPI and CPI.The Chapter IV based on the processed data, using quantitative analysis methods to analyses empirically the transmission mechanism of PPI and the CPI. Quantitative methods adopted by modern econometric methods-VAR model, Granger causality test, JJ testing method, impulse response function and other methods.The results show that: PPI and CPI monthly exists a dynamic relationship in long-term and short-term, and, the financial crisis had a strong impact to the domestic price transmission by juxtaposing the PPI and CPI conductivity relationship between before and after the financial crisis in China.The ChapterⅤintroduces RPI index to establish VAR mode to conduct empirical analysis of the current situation of the price transmission mechanism in China, the study suggests that the price transmission was smooth in China's overall economy on the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis in previous paper.The ChapterⅥsummarizes all the empirical analysis, draws conclusions and put forward countermeasures and suggestions.The ChapterⅦpoints out the shortcomings of the study and makes the prospect of the flowing price transmission mechanism.