Nonlinear Fluctuation Mechanism Of Upstream And Downstream Product Prices In The Context Of Supply Side Reform

So far,there are still great differences between the direction of the relationship between CPI and PPI in the academic circle.Studying the transmission mechanism between PPI and CPI,and formulating quantitative control policy timely according to the driving mechanism between them,is significant for the country to relieve inflation and achieve stable economic growth.The mere linear model can not effectively explain the nonlinear characteristics in the changing path of economic variables.In this paper,the nonlinear causal model is used to study the transfer process between the structural components of the economic sequence from the frequency domain.Try to find out a variety of conduction relationship and conduction lag between them,and provide the basis and suggestions for the government to formulate macro countermeasures.In this paper,we first use ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)algorithm to decompose PPI and CPI in frequency domain to obtain the intrinsic mode sequence(IMF).Then we reconstruct three structural components,that is high frequency,medium frequency and trend by the travel decision method.Then,according to the industrial chain and price expectation transmission mechanism of PPI and CPI,a nonlinear MG system model(MNMG model)is constructed to test the linear and nonlinear causality.The bivariate MG chaotic system is biased towards the study of the multifaceted conduction of the macro economic index with internal interaction and two-way feedback.It can be used to study linear and nonlinear effects at the same time and carry out quantitative comparison.It is very advantageous to test the linear and nonlinear genera of the internal conduction path.The study found that:(1)For the total sequence,there is only the forward linear transmission path of PPI to CPI.For high-frequency components,PPI has a positive linear transmission to CPI;for intermediate frequency components,CPI has nonlinear feedback conduction to PPI.For the low frequency components,there are four transmission ways: linear,nonlinear down and backward feedback.(2)The numerical changes of PPI promote CPI in lag 2 to 3 months forward,and the numerical change of CPI promotes PPI in 2 to 5 months backward.The time lag of positive conduction is shorter,which indicates that supply factors are faster to form the pressure of inflation(or deflation).(3)The two mechanisms,industrial chain and price expectation explain the linear and nonlinear characteristics of price transmission to a certain extent.The industrial chain mechanism plays a significant role in the forward conduction of high frequency and low frequency fluctuations,and the price anticipation mechanism plays a significant role in the reverse transmission of intermediate frequency and low frequency fluctuation.(4)The analysis of the absolute marginal effect of reverse conduction of CPI to PPI in low frequency components shows,the lower the PPI,the difference between the absolute marginal effect t value of the nonlinear and the linear CPI coefficient is smaller.From the policy point of view,when the price contraction in the production and consumption fields,especially in the face of severe PPI long-term decline in recent years,the reverse price expectation regulation policy should be fully considered.