The Research On The Freight Of Soybean Importing Of China

Soybean plays an important role in oil production around world, it is related to people's livelihood, and it has a strategic significance. China's soybean market has been controlled by foreign-funded enterprises, which is a serious impact on our economy. Therefore, the study of influence factor of soybean ocean freight is conducive to reveal the changes in tariff imports of soybeans and the price changes of soybean. It will not only help companies develop business strategies, but also conducive to the development of relevant government policies and regulations to maintain the stability of soybean prices.This paper mainly analyzes the impact of China's soybean import tariff of maritime factors from the quantitative and qualitative view. After a careful analysis on recent studies, Firstly we analysis the soybean supply and demand in the transportation market, let known the current status of maritime transport of soybean. Secondly we study the factors which influence the supply and demand of soybean transportation, after that we establish the ARMA model to forecast soybean sea freight of the line from U.S. Gulf to the North China.Before modeling we extract the long-term and seasonal trends in tariff from the original sequence. Then use the ADF test the observed sequence whether Smooth or not. And Ultimately, we established the ARMA (4,3) model to forecast the U.S. Gulf to the north of China's soybean price.The results show that, ARMA (4,3) is a good response to China's soybean imports fluctuations in ocean freignt. Finally, we use this model to predict the future tariff; we found the value of China's soybean imports will not have very large fluctuations recently. We Hope that this forecast can do some help to the soybean import and export enterprise and other related businesses.