Research On Early-warning Mechanism In Water Market

Water is an important natural resource. It can not be replaced by any other substances. It plays a vital role in economic development. Therefore, to maintain stable and healthy development of water markets, and provide water supply market operation with early-warning is a very realistic basic project. In this paper, under the guidance of market early-warning theory, from the supply and demand sides of the exchange relations and the price factor in marketing, early-warning mechanism for water market will be studied. Major research work and research results are as follows:1 Based on the theory of marketing and early-warning, we initially formed the conceptual framework for early warning in the water market.2 Through depth research on the theoretical basis and control system theory of early-warning in water market, we initially built an early-warning theoretical framework both consistent with its own characteristics and meeting the requirements of the supply and demand sides. And then we propose the basic method of early-warning in water market, such as the method of distinguishing the warning signs, measuring the warning levels and handling the early warning index.3 Based on the theory of marketing, from the supply and demand sides of the exchange relations and the price factor, we proposed a comprehensive early-warning indicator of operation in water market. With the artificial neural network model of the BP network for the prediction of index value and the contrast method of determining warning levels, and together with the Delphi method and AHP of determining the proportion of indicators, an early-warning index model of water market is finally established. The "Comprehensive Evaluation of the utility function model" is employed to determine a comprehensive early warning indicator for the operation of water market.4 An empirical analysis of an early-warning mechanism is carried out in the water market. Relying on Tianjin philosophy and social science project of key funds-Study on restraint mechanism of water resource in Binhai, the empirical study on early-warning mechanism for the operation of the water market in Binhai has been undertaken and related specific measures have also been brought forward to come up with a consultation for the transformation of the water market from an unstable state to a stable state. Finally a reference for the supply and demand sides will be provided.