Survey And Prediction Research Of Passenger Volume On Changchun-dalian Pdl

Along with the five-year layout of railway net,the PDL construction focus more and more attention upon it.Fortune capacity forecasting work play an important role in the PDL construction,it is the bedrock of the trend of traffic developing,it is the tropical pledge of the project,it is the gist to ensure the rank of the station and the level of the facility.The historical traffic data of PDL is less and the current methods are less efficient and unify for it is still fresh things in our country.So the main purpose of this paper is to find the optimum model for the fortune capacity forecasting of the PDL.The item of this paper is as follows:first of all,divide the cities along with the PDL into different levels before investigation and premise by the fuzzy clustering method,and research these own characteristic.Second,choose the most appropriate forecast method according to the characteristic of PDL passenger flow by correlation analysis.Then,a new forecasting model is accomplished to predict the passenger demand of major points for future years after the line is available.Finally,the model parameter must be revised in the practical application.Passenger demand is divided into three levels,tendency demand forecast is realized by Grey Forecasting Method.The passenger participate rate forecast is predicted byTransport Costing Model.The passenger induced rate is calculated by Gravity Model or Analogy Model.